Everest 2012: Positioning for the Last Wave

Camp 2
Camp 2

The last wave of climbers are positioned at Camp 2 on the South and ABC on the North. The last weather window of the 2012 spring season is taking shape with May 25/26th being the sweet spot.

 Weather

I spoke with Everest weather expert, prescription Michael Fagin who said the monsoons were forming off India:

Numerical forecast models are now starting to indicate an increase in upper level moisture in Southern India by May 25 and beyond. Models are also starting to show a shift in the upper winds by May 25 in Southern India and beyond to a more easterly direction.  Both of these weather  patterns are indicators that the monsoon should be starting soon. In fact this concurs with the meteorological department from  India stated  that the 2012 monsoon will start on time and hit the Kerala coast by June 1.

Everest Wind Forecast
Everest Wind Forecast

Translation: it is now or the Fall for Everest 2012.

The Icefall Doctors always remove the ladders on May 31 putting an end to the season. Over on the North, check there is no such hard stop and summits can continue until the heavy snows began. There have been summits into mid June on some rare years but probably not 2012.

Summit Experiences

By many accounts, this past weekend, especially Saturday night was difficult. Friday it was the crowds, Saturday it was the winds. Several teams are now safely back in base camp and climbers are updating their blogs. This account from Jon Kedrowski ‘s home team. Jon turned back with his SummitClimb team on the South:

What happened?  The jet stream all of sudden backed itself over the summit.  A 2-hour wait at one of the chokepoints near the summit left climbers caught in these 80mph winds.  Jon was ascending while other climbers from the previous day who had summited were descending through the chokepoint after 18-hours or more on the mountain. Cut-off times were ignored and oxygen had run out.  Jon tried to save four seperate climbers. “

Jon is from Colorado and was interviewed by phone for the local Fox affiliate. Full disclosure, I am also interviewed for this:

Planning for Success

Climbers descending through the Lhotse Icefall are reporting it is in good shape, which was a huge concern earlier this season. It appears that low temps plus the fresh snow throughout May have somewhat stabilized the fragile environment.

Dave Hahn‘s RMI team is at Camp 2 and posted this update:

The climbing route is actually in pretty good condition. The ice fall is scary as ever but the Ice Fall Doctors have been doing a good job and we got through in pretty quick time. It was a beautiful morning nice and clear and calm. The mountain is quieting down a little bit. There were a lot of Sherpas carrying loads down today for expeditions that were finished. So the mountain is quieting down and we think that is a hopeful sign for us. The forecast is coming together and there are still a few teams still around that are on the same time frame as us. We have been comparing notes. Things are going pretty well. Our Sherpa team is going to come up tomorrow to ABC. We are going to rest tomorrow and get ready for the Lhotse Face and moving to Camp 3 the following day. We are pretty optimistic.

Dealing with the Deaths

The multiple deaths of this past weekend have rippled through the remaining climbers and is now hitting the trade press. This is often difficult but an overriding mantra for many climbers is “that if it was me, I would want my teammates to go on.”

There have been multiple attempts to tie the weekend deaths with Himex’s decision to pull out. I believe this is a stretch. The climbers who lost their lives, mostly died from altitude related issues, not route conditions that concerned the Himex Sherpas the most. Also knowing Himex, they would have waited out this window thus avoiding those crowds entirely.

But it is easy to oversimplify the situations searching for answers that may lie within the climbers themselves. Some of the climbers were still ascending very late in the day when most climbers had already returned the South Col. This plus the winds and fatigue was a for disaster.

Climb On!
Alan
Memories are Everything

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19 thoughts on “Everest 2012: Positioning for the Last Wave

  1. Hi Alan, i just thought you might like to know(in case you didn’t already) that the Indian women’s team i wanted to know about are with Rimo Expeditions. They have a blog and are posting some information on their progress.

  2. I thought I saw an update, but now it is gone, about some sherpas being injured by rockfall above camp 3. Will that sherpas injuries, or the rockfall, have any impact on the upcoming summit attempts? Thanks again for your great coverage of Everest.

    1. Carrie, There was a brief confusing report but no new rock fall incidents have occurred as of late Tuesday May 22 on the South side. It appears that this will not be an issue on the final push and was not a factor on the deaths last weekend.

      1. Alan,

        I am glad to hear that there were Sherpas injured. Thanks again for keeping us all informed.

        Carrie

        1. Carrie
          Did you actually mean it “I am glad to hear that there were sherpas injured “. If you have friends or families on Everest now wanting to brag about being on the top of the world then learn to have some respect for them who is baby sitting and spoon feeding those wanna be mountaineers like a child and keeping them ALIVE.

          Nima Sherpa

          1. Nima I am 1000% positive she simply left the word “no” out. Sherpas have all our respect for your tremendous courage, strength and values.

  3. Thank you Alan. That article answers a few of my question, it also raises other questions that I’m presented with. Wth your knowledge of the mountain, may I email you with them?

    I send my deepest thoughts and prayers to all that have lost a loved one.

  4. Thanks Alan for your daily new from Everest.I am very glad that our team from Colorado succesfully summited and back to base camp safely.Congralations to everyone who summited this year.
    Karma Sherpa
    Boulder,Co

  5. Thank you Alan. While I respect each climbers quest to summit (not just Everest, ANY mountain where Altitude sickness comes into play, I’ve seen it as low as 10k). I’ve learned over the years that MY plan is alway to make the summit, but my GOAL for each trip is make it home.

    With that said, isn’t there a team on the mountain that was studying (from a medical aspect) of the effects on the body at HA? I want to say it was part of the NATGEO team.

    My sincere thoughts and prayers go out to those that have been lost.

  6. Smith is a very common name so I suppose another Kate Smith is highly possible. As a result I say Hi to my namesake and I am curious to know where in the big wide world she lives? Is it next door or the other side of the world ? Cheers Kate S (UK). ps. Of course I meant overcrowding not over crowing !!!

  7. First of all I must make it quite clear that the message re over crowing with my name heading is certainly not from me, how this can happen I don’t know? I would like to make a comment about Kenton Cool who was last noted as being at Camp 2 South. I am hoping he gets the chance at the second window to keep a promise made by Baron Pierre de Coubertin at the 1924 Winter Olympics when the team who had made an attempt to summit Everest in 1922, but failed, were presented with Olympics Medals for their efforts. Kenton is trying to fulfill the promise to place a medal on the summit. Arthur Wakefield was one of the climbers and his family have agreed to give his medal to Kenton so the promise may be honoured. It is a fitting year to do this as the world knows the Games are to be held in London this July. I am sure the whole country are behind him Cheers Kate E Smith

  8. Alan I guess a pertinent issue is whether delays due to overcrowding on the mountain contributed to or compounded altitude related issues. Do you have a view?

    1. Kate, if there are delays, the climbers go much slower, use more energy and oxygen, get colder and increase the risk of edema, or AMS so yes it is a major factor. Thus my advice to get out early, climb fast and get off the Hill ASAP.

  9. As you told :”Some of the climbers were still ascending very late in the day when most climbers had already returned the South Col.”I might not really understand why guides ect. didn’t told them to turn around…

    1. The leaders might have told them the turn around time had been reached and it’s time to turn back. Might have been summit fever, we’ll never know.

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