{"id":10345,"date":"2012-05-21T14:01:19","date_gmt":"2012-05-21T20:01:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.alanarnette.com\/blog\/?p=10345"},"modified":"2019-04-06T12:28:38","modified_gmt":"2019-04-06T18:28:38","slug":"everest-2012-positioning-for-the-last-wave","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alanarnette.com\/blog\/2012\/05\/21\/everest-2012-positioning-for-the-last-wave\/","title":{"rendered":"Everest 2012: Positioning for the Last Wave"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Camp<\/a>
Camp 2<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The last wave of climbers are positioned at Camp 2 on the South and ABC on the North. The last weather window of the 2012 spring season is taking shape with May 25\/26th being the sweet spot.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Weather<\/h4>\n

I spoke with Everest weather expert, prescription Michael Fagin<\/a> who said the monsoons were forming off India:<\/p>\n

Numerical forecast models are now starting to indicate an increase in upper level moisture in Southern India by May 25 and beyond. Models are also starting to show a shift in the upper winds by May 25 in Southern India and beyond to a more easterly direction.\u00a0 Both of these weather\u00a0 patterns are indicators that the monsoon should be starting soon. In fact this concurs with the meteorological department from\u00a0 India stated\u00a0 that the 2012 monsoon will start on time and hit\u00a0the Kerala coast by June 1.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"Everest<\/a>
Everest Wind Forecast<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Translation: it is now or the Fall for Everest 2012.<\/p>\n

The Icefall Doctors always remove the ladders on May 31 putting an end to the season. Over on the North, check there is no such hard stop and summits can continue until the heavy snows began. There have been summits into mid June on some rare years but probably not 2012.<\/p>\n

Summit Experiences<\/h4>\n

By many accounts, this past weekend, especially Saturday night was difficult. Friday it was the crowds, Saturday it was the winds. Several teams are now safely back in base camp and climbers are updating their blogs. This account from Jon Kedrowski<\/a> ‘s home team. Jon turned back with his SummitClimb team on the South:<\/p>\n

What happened?\u00a0 The jet stream all of sudden backed itself over the summit.\u00a0 A 2-hour wait at one of the chokepoints near the summit left climbers caught in these 80mph winds.\u00a0 Jon was ascending while other climbers from the previous day who had summited were descending through the chokepoint\u00a0after 18-hours or more\u00a0on the mountain. Cut-off times were ignored and oxygen had run out.\u00a0 Jon tried to save four seperate climbers.\u00a0“<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Jon is from Colorado and was interviewed by phone for the local Fox affiliate. Full disclosure, I am also interviewed for this:
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