{"id":17707,"date":"2010-05-19T07:47:15","date_gmt":"2010-05-19T13:47:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.alanarnette.com\/news\/?p=3105"},"modified":"2019-04-06T12:28:42","modified_gmt":"2019-04-06T18:28:42","slug":"monsoon-watch-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alanarnette.com\/blog\/2010\/05\/19\/monsoon-watch-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Monsoon Watch"},"content":{"rendered":"

A huge wave of climbers on both sides of Everest have moved to their respective Advanced Base Camps. Many have declared a summit day of May 22nd but are monitoring the weather closely.<\/p>\n

This season is beginning to look identical to 2009 when bad weather basically shut Everest down around May 23rd and eventually delayed departures from base camps by almost week due to the heavy snow. Leaders who were there last year want to avoid a repeat, try especially on summit night.<\/p>\n

Mountain Trip, led by Scott Woolums with climbers Cindy Abbott and Paul & Denise Fejtek are looking at this weekend but have not pinned down a summit date. They explain:<\/p>\n

We are still confident that the decrease in winds forecast over the 22, 23, 24 will hold a good summit day for us. But we also have our Quiji board, tarot cards and our lucky dice! We are not being elusive with exactly when we are going, its just as the date gets closer, the forecasts become much more accurate. To say we are going say on the 24th would be reckless as things are changing rapidly by the day. One factor that will play a big role over the next week is a large tropical depression that’s formed in the Bay of Bengal and basically is heading our way. We may see precip and cloud from this as early as the 21st. This is the same type of storm that shut the mountain down last year with a lot of snow! Way to early to predict what will happen with this, but we are watching closely.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

On the north, an identical situation. Gabriel Filippi made this plan:<\/p>\n

I am getting ready for the summit push.\u00a0 I will leave around noon, and climb to camp 1 (7100m) hoping\u00a0for the weather\u00a0to hold.\u00a0 Strong winds are in the forecast until Friday night,\u00a0and snow moves in on\u00a0Saturday.\u00a0Therefore, I am aiming to\u00a0be\u00a0at the last camp for the very small window during the night of the 21 to the 22, where no wind and no snow are expected.\u00a0 Clearly, things can change fast on\u00a0a mountain, and the very notion of\u00a0 prediction is almost ironic.\u00a0 I\u00a0will\u00a0stay alert…. and optimistic!<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Looking at the weather that is playing a huge role in summit plans; IMG’s Eric Simonson posted this update on their blog that a monsoon in the Bay of Bengal is forming and moving north towards Everest. Eric posted:<\/p>\n

We are tracking tropical cyclone Laila in the Bay of Bengal. Our longtime IMG weather forecaster Michael Fagin (www.everestweather.com<\/a>) forwards us this satellite photo (courtesy of Meteorological Forecasting Division, Government of\u00a0Nepal).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/div>\n

As this storm moves north, we are hoping it will be pushed east by the jet stream, missing the Everest\u00a0area!<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

So we might see a rush to the top similar to last year, 2009<\/strong>. Regular followers will remember that Himex actually sent their team up a bit before schedule to miss the heavy stuff. Summit night of May 22, 2009 was a tough one with stiff winds and snowfall.<\/p>\n

Dave Hahn commented last year on his summit night as the cyclone brought huge changes to Everest (remember this was 2009, not this year<\/strong><\/em>):<\/p>\n

We passed the other climbing teams, one by one, as we went up the face in the night and just as dawn was beginning to the East we overtook a final team at 28,000 ft and felt fully in control of our pace and destiny as we took on the South Summit.\u00a0 As daylight came on, I knew it was one of the prettiest mornings I\u2019d seen from up high.\u00a0 But I didn\u2019t reach for my camera.\u00a0 The morning was pretty because there were clouds at many levels and in many directions.\u00a0 I didn\u2019t take pictures for the same reason I wouldn\u2019t if I saw a large tiger coming my way with fangs barred.<\/p>\n

It was clear that our good weather window was closing and we needed to move fast and hard if we wanted to squeeze in a summit.\u00a0 We felt the full force of the winds as we crested the South Summit, but all were strong and all nodded their heads when I pointed across the crazy traverse topping the Kangshung and Southwest Faces and leading to the Hillary Step and the summit.\u00a0 We went for it, but even before we\u2019d scrambled up the Hillary Step, clouds had covered the mountaintop.\u00a0 Visibility was poor at 6:45 AM when we stepped up to the summit.\u00a0 Most of us kept our packs on, knowing our stay would be short.\u00a0 It was not a day for photos and flags\u2026 just a few handshakes and hugs and we were out of there.\u00a0 We made quick time back down through the storm to high camp.\u00a0 Lucky.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

You can read Dave’s excellent description<\/a> of how the cyclone’s impact hit Base Camp last year.<\/p>\n

Of course it can snow all it wants once the climbers are down!<\/p>\n

Many teams on the south are\u00a0 looking to start their summit bid on Friday, May 21s which would have them on top Saturday morning, May 22nd between 6:00 AM to 10:00AM, normally.<\/p>\n