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Welcome to the\u00a0kick-off for my Everest 2016 coverage! This will be my 14th season of all-things Everest: 9 times providing coverage, another 4 seasons of actually climbing on Everest and then last year attempting Lhotse when the earthquake hit Nepal.<\/p>\n
I did similar coverage for the 2004<\/a>, \u00a02005<\/a>, \u00a02006<\/a>, 2007<\/a>, 2009<\/a>, 2010,<\/a> 2012<\/a>,\u00a02013<\/a>,\u00a02014<\/a> and 2015<\/a> seasons. I summited Everest <\/a>on May 21, 2011 and have attempted\u00a0Everest three other\u00a0times – 2002<\/a>, 2003<\/a>, 2008<\/a> and Lhotse<\/a> in 2015.<\/p>\n If you are one of my 1.5 million regular readers, hello again, if you are new, welcome!<\/p>\n My goal is to provide insight and analysis of what is going on up there with no favorites or agendas. I use sources directly from the mountain, public information and my own experiences to write\u00a0my posts.<\/p>\n Usually I post once a day as the season gets started in early April and ramp up to almost hourly coverage during the intense summit pushes in mid to late May. I spend several hours a day to create these updates. You can sign up for (and cancel) notifications on the lower right sidebar or check the site frequently.<\/p>\n Why do I do this? Well, one word: Alzheimer’s<\/strong>. I lost my mom, Ida, and two aunts\u00a0to this disease and it changed my life forever. You can read more at this link<\/a>. I hope that you enjoy my coverage and make a donation<\/a> to any of my selected non-profit partners as a tangible thank you. I never benefit financially from your donations. Just click on this button that is always on the top right sidebar.<\/p>\n Without a doubt, the last few seasons on Everest\u00a0have been difficult, deadly, disappointing and surprising.<\/p>\n The last time we had a “normal” season was in 2012<\/strong> with a 551 combined summits from both sides and 10 deaths. Even then controversy\u00a0emerged when Himex cancelled their expedition\u00a0half way through the season after\u00a0Russell Brice deemed the West Shoulder of\u00a0Everest too unstable for his Sherpas and members\u00a0to pass\u00a0underneath. Also, record crowds in 2012 created insufferable lines above Camp 3 and at the Hillary Step fueling global discussion that Everest management was in need of serious changes.<\/p>\n In 2013<\/strong>\u00a0an estimated 658 people summited in the spring, 539 on the south and 119 on the north with 8 confirmed deaths. That year we saw the inexcusable behavior of both Sherpas and professional climbers arguing and fighting<\/strong> about who had the right to climb on the Lhotse Face while the fixed ropes were being set for the commercial teams.<\/p>\n Then the deadliest year ever on Everest occurred in 2014<\/strong> when\u00a019 Sherpas died either from a serac release<\/strong> off Everest’s West Shoulder or during other parts of the season. The season was effectively canceled<\/strong>\u00a0when a small band of Sherpas\u00a0influenced\u00a0others to go on strike for improved working conditions and insurance coverage. There was only one non-Sherpa climber to summit from the South side. She used a helicopter to ferry herself and a team of Sherpas\u00a0to Camp 2 because the Icefall Doctors had quit maintaining the route. Meanwhile it was business as usual on the North with about 125 summits.<\/p>\n In spite of the chaos during the previous seasons, almost record permits were issued in the spring of 2015<\/strong> –\u00a0358 individuals for Everest 114 for Lhotse and 56 for Nuptse.\u00a0The season progressed well with the Icefall Doctors taking care to move the route through Khumbu Icefall a bit away from the West Shoulder’s objective dangers.<\/p>\n But\u00a0the world came crashing down, literally and figuratively when a magnitude 7.8 earthquake<\/strong> occurred on April 25, 2015 in north-central Nepal impacting close to 10 million people – \u00a0one third of Nepal’s population. Over 9,000 people lost their lives. Today, almost one year later, the response to the communities\u00a0and families hardest hit has been embarrassingly inadequate by the Nepal government. Reports<\/a>\u00a0say that little of the $4 billion in promised foreign aid has been delivered\u00a0or used.<\/p>\n As for climbing<\/strong> in 2015<\/strong>, for the first time since 1974, there were no summits<\/span> on Everest by any route in any season. The earthquake created massive instability on both the Tibet and Nepal sides of the mountain creating concern that climbers would be in more dangerous conditions than normal. On the Nepal side, over 180 climbers had to be evacuated by helicopter from Camp 1 at 19,500\u2019 in the Western Cwm when aftershocks made descending though the Khumbu Icefall too dangerous.<\/span><\/p>\n While the Nepal government never officially closed Everest to climbing, it was practically shut off as the primary climbing route goes through the Khumbu Icefall and the Sherpas who managed the route stopped maintaining it given the danger. Also, almost every team made the independent decision to halt climbing due to the excessive risks.<\/span><\/p>\n On the Tibet side, the Chinese government through the China Tibet Mountaineering Association (CTMA), made the decision to close all climbing throughout Tibet, including Everest, the day after the earthquake and through the remainder of 2015 due to potential aftershocks and excessive risks.<\/span><\/p>\n I was at Camp 2, 21,500\u2019, in the Western Cwm climbing Lhotse Peak when the earthquake hit. Our team doctor, Marisa Eve Girawong, was one of 18 killed at basecamp from an avalanche caused by the quake. Once we understood the magnitude of the devastation across Nepal, climbing was the last thing on our minds. We were in full support of our Sherpas and other support staff returning to their home villages to take care of their families. Please read\u00a0my full 2015 season report<\/a>\u00a0for an inside look.<\/span><\/p>\n So what does 2016 look like? It could be the lowest number of climbers in years for several\u00a0reasons.<\/p>\n Certainly the publicity around the earthquakes<\/strong> have created concern\u00a0that the infrastructure is not safe and\u00a0climbing in avalanche prone areas is more dangerous than ever given the unsettled terrain. \u00a0Many feel that climate change is causing the snow and ice features to shift on the world\u2019s highest mountains creating more objective danger on the normal routes. Others feel that these events occur naturally and the deaths are a result of people being in the wrong place at the wrong time. \u00a0Personally, I believe climbing is no more dangerous (that doesn’t say much!) than it has always been on Everest and the large mountains of the\u00a0Himalaya.<\/p>\n Reports from autumn 2015\u00a0trekkers and climbers throughout Nepal noted no problems with teahouses and climbing on peaks like Island and Mera saying they were\u00a0as safe as they have always been. The Japanese climber\u00a0Nobukazu Kuriki attempted Everest from the South Col route in the autumn of 2015, and while unsuccessful, said the conditions were “normal”.<\/p>\n That\u00a0said, other reports note that Nepal remains a ticking time-bomb for an even larger earthquake that could\u00a0hit at any moment. For an excellent\u00a0look at the April 25, 2015 earthquake, subsequent damage and predictions, visit this documentary<\/a> on PBS\/Nova. Note it is not available in all countries.<\/p>\n Another factor that could reduce crowds is the ongoing political turmoil<\/strong> in Nepal as a new government struggles to implement a new constitution. This bungling has lead the Madhesis in southern Nepal on the border with India to block critical supplies including fuel and medicine from\u00a0entering the country from India, Nepal’s largest trading partner. \u00a0As usual there is plenty of blame to go around but recent\u00a0reports<\/a> note the government will amend the constitution to meet the needs of the\u00a0Madhesis but other reports<\/a> say it will not solve the real problem. One can only hope it gets resolved before the tourists arrive in late March.<\/p>\n Back to mountaineering, the Nepal Ministry of Avaition and Tourism that manages Everest and the other mountains\u00a0has floated several ideas to make Everest less crowded and safer. This has become an annual event where newspapers around the world parrot the Ministry’s declarations but follow thru is sporadic and ineffective. This year, they are suggesting upper and lower age limits plus requirements that anyone attempting Everest must have experience on a 6500 meter peak. You can read my full analysis of these ideas on this post<\/a> but I doubt anything will change for 2016.<\/p>\n Finally, there is a school of thought that says the Himalaya mountains are asking to be left alone and no one should climb in 2016, or longer. The thought goes on to note that Sherpas\u00a0have had a difficult time rebuilding their homes due to lack\u00a0of aid, construction material, labor and time during a harsh winter. All of this is true according to my sources. However, I have received a large number of requests to come back to Nepal this spring to show support and confidence in Nepal, plus bringing badly needed work, and cash, to the Sherpa and many other ethnicities.<\/p>\n As I covered in my annual “How much does it cost to climb Mount Everest<\/a>” post, look for prices to be higher … and lower \ud83d\ude42 .<\/p>\n So how much does it cost to climb Everest? The short answer is, a car, or at least $30,000 but most people pay about $45,000.\u00a0The headline for 2016 is that the high-end went higher<\/span> and the low-end went lower<\/span>. The price range for a standard climb, i.e. non-custom, ranges from $30,000 to $85,000. This is driven by low cost Nepali operators getting a foothold in the market and the traditional western operators adding more services to differentiate their product. In other words, climbing Everest has become a mature market just like cars or airplane flights.<\/p>\n How much you spend depends\u00a0on the expedition style, level of support and which side of Everest you climb. A standard climb from Tibet (north side) should run around $32,000 and from Nepal (south side) $42,000.\u00a0A climb with one or more western guides from the south side will cost at least $60,000. If you want to go with one of the low cost Nepali companies with no frills and perhaps some dangerous shortcuts, it will cost\u00a0about $30,000 from either side.<\/p>\n The Grand Dame of all Everest statistics, Ms. Elizabeth Hawley reports on the Himalayan Database that there have been 7,001<\/strong> summits<\/strong> of Everest through August 2015 on all routes by 4,093<\/strong> different people. 953 people, mostly Sherpa, have summited multiple times totaling 3,861 times (included in the 7,001 total summits).\u00a0193 climbers summited without supplemental oxygen through August 2015, about 2.7% 14 climbers have traversed from one side to the other. About 60% of all expeditions put at least one member on the summit.<\/p>\n 282<\/strong> people (169 westerners and 113 Sherpas) have died<\/strong> on Everest from 1924 to August 2015. Of the deaths, 102 died attempting to summit without using supplemental oxygen. The Nepalese side is more popular<\/span> with 4,421 summits with 176 deaths through August 2015 or 3.98%. The Tibet side has seen 2,580 summits with 106 deaths through August 2015. or 4.1%. Most bodies are still on the mountain but China has removed many bodies from sight. The top cause of death was from a fall, avalanche, exposure and altitude sickness<\/p>\n Everest is getting safer<\/span>, statistically. From 1923 to 1999: 170 people died on Everest with 1,169 summits or 14.5%. But the deaths drastically declined from 2000 to 2015 with 5,832 summits and 112 deaths or 1.9%. However, as I previously discussed, two years skewed the deaths rates with 16 in 2014 and 19 in 2015. The reduction in deaths is primarily due to better gear, weather forecasting and more people climbing with commercial operations.<\/p>\n Sadly, death on Everest has become a marketing tool for some operators claiming their techniques are safer. As always climbing Everest is thwart with slick s pitches, clever use of statistics\u00a0and pricing strategies designed\u00a0to draw in the naive with low prices and lure those\u00a0looking for a\u00a0fast and ‘easy’ summit\u00a0with high prices.<\/p>\n The death to ‘summit ratio (282:7001) on Everest from\u00a0both sides is about 4%. Annapurna remains the most deadly 8000 meter mountain with three deaths for every summit (211:69) or 32% .<\/p>\n In my opinion, the recent tragedies will not stop the desire to climb Everest or other high mountains as most people who climb accept the risks. There are some in the Sherpa community that have decided to stop guiding on Everest due to the increasing danger and pressure from their families but the economic benefit of guiding Everest often outweighs the risks.<\/p>\n My hope is that climbers will return to Nepal in the spring of 2016 to provide work and income for the Sherpa community. Nepal needs tourism more than ever to help rebuild the country. I am confident the infrastructure is in place to support climbers and trekkers. There have been many lessons for the recent tragedies that will be applied next season for example, changing the location of camps and climbing routes to minimize impact of avalanches, better training for the Sherpas, and radios and avalanche beacons for all support and climbers.<\/p>\n But to be clear, climbing the world’s highest peaks have become more challenging\u00a0in recent years. As I previously reported<\/a>, 2015 was\u00a0a difficult year on the 8000 meter\u00a0mountains with few summits and too many tragic deaths.<\/p>\n I have begun to create my annual team location table <\/a> and tracking climber’s blogs (see sidebar). If you have a team not listed, please let me know and I will add them if I can track them. If you prefer not to be mentioned, please contact<\/a> me.<\/p>\n![\"Please](\"http:\/\/www.alanarnette.com\/images\/buttons\/donate100alzheimersround.gif\")
<\/a><\/div>\nFour\u00a0Years of Death and Uncertainty<\/h3>\n
2016 Overview<\/h2>\n
Higher Prices<\/h2>\n
Summit Statistics<\/h2>\n
Outlook<\/h2>\n
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<\/a><\/p>\nFollow Along!<\/h2>\n