{"id":22080,"date":"2016-03-15T11:49:03","date_gmt":"2016-03-15T17:49:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.alanarnette.com\/blog\/?p=22080"},"modified":"2016-03-30T21:25:25","modified_gmt":"2016-03-31T03:25:25","slug":"changing_mountain_part_3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alanarnette.com\/blog\/2016\/03\/15\/changing_mountain_part_3\/","title":{"rendered":"Everest 2016: A Changing Mountain – Part 3"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Everest<\/a>Some\u00a0people are questioning the wisdom of climbing Everest from Nepal. Is the North safer? Is this another change in climbing Everest that could result in\u00a0a serious economic impact for\u00a0Tibet, but more so for\u00a0Nepal?<\/p>\n

The Nepal (south) side of Everest has seen a tragic series of events the past few years including Himex abandoning\u00a0their entire expedition in 2012 fearing\u00a0an avalanche onto the Khumbu Icefall. Then that precise scenario\u00a0occurred in 2014 when that very serac released onto the Khumbu Icefall taking\u00a016 Sherpa lives. Then when a few Sherpas lead a work stoppage, the entire season came\u00a0to a early end that year. \u00a0Last year, 2015, an\u00a0earthquake triggered an avalanche that killed 18 in base camp on the south side.<\/p>\n

The Nepal Ministry of Tourism<\/a> seems to use the press as a sounding board by floating new rules in search of public relations points that they are making Everest safer. But in fact, these press releases confuse and delay people from\u00a0making\u00a0informed decisions.<\/p>\n

With the terrain instability combined with the political instability in Nepal, will the long time commercial operators shift to the Tibet in search of a more stable environment? This post explores that option with the operators.<\/p>\n

To state my view up front, climbing from either side has its pros and cons and there are\u00a0operators who can provide a safe experience at reasonable prices on both sides. Of course you can climb a different route than the ones discussed. \u00a0Bottom line: research the issues, choose carefully and climb safely.<\/p>\n

China\u00a0Closes the Border<\/h3>\n

To start the discussion, China\u00a0provides surprises\u00a0almost every year. For example in 2008 when they effectively closed\u00a0Everest to accommodate their Olympic torch\u00a0summit. And then occasionally refusing permits to certain nationalities with no explanations. And finally closing their border fearing protests with little warning or means of appeal for expeditions who have\u00a0spent tens, if not hundreds of thousands of dollars assuming a smooth and safe border crossing.<\/p>\n

There are\u00a0already hints that China may be nervous in 2016 as teams will have to wait to cross the Nepal\/Tibet border on their way to base camp. The Chinese announced<\/a> in January that all foreigners must leave Tibet and no one can enter until March 30, 2016. Ostensibly they are fearing protests ahead of several\u00a0politically sensitive anniversaries including the 2008 March uprising that rocked Tibet\u00a0in the run up to Beijing Olympics.<\/p>\n

These delays are somewhat normal for China as it seems that each year there are surprises that delay or even cancel climbing. This is why long time operators like IMG, Himalayan Experience, Altitude Junkies and others long ago shifted their Everest operations to the, arguably, more stable Nepal side. But\u00a0a few operators now prefer\u00a0the north side and one has made it the center piece of their Everest strategy arguing the Northeast Ridge is a safer route by avoiding the Khumbu Icefall on the south. Other operators hedge their bets and offer climbs on both sides.<\/p>\n

A Discussion on North vs. South<\/h3>\n

With this as the introduction, I asked a few operators their opinion of which side is safer and if they are considering switching. But before we get to their comments, \u00a0let me provide the facts so you can make your own judgment about any potential spin in the following comments. The Himalayan Database, run by Elizabeth Hawley and Richard Salisbury, recorded from 1924 to today:<\/p>\n