{"id":22808,"date":"2016-05-18T07:55:20","date_gmt":"2016-05-18T13:55:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.alanarnette.com\/blog\/?p=22808"},"modified":"2019-04-06T12:28:29","modified_gmt":"2019-04-06T18:28:29","slug":"everestlhotse-2016-winds-let-summit-push","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alanarnette.com\/blog\/2016\/05\/18\/everestlhotse-2016-winds-let-summit-push\/","title":{"rendered":"Everest\/Lhotse 2016: Winds Let Up for Next Summit Push"},"content":{"rendered":"

After the surprise wind storm on Tuesday 17 May, the winds seem to have let up on Wednesday 18 May and teams at the South Col are preparing to give it a go tonight – in a few hours actually. Potentially close to 200 people.<\/p>\n

Those positioned at Camps 2 and 3 will move up to the South Col for their summit attempts hoping to top out on the 19 of May.<\/p>\n

Punishing Night<\/h3>\n

Those that spent last\u00a0night and today at the South Col were punished. I had\u00a0a similar experience in 2003 when we expected good weather but it turned ugly and were forced to spend\u00a0a night at the Col.<\/p>\n

Usually you squeeze 3 or 4 people into a tent for a few hours – not a big deal – but when you need to spend 30 hours … You try\u00a0to sleep but at almost\u00a08,000 meters it is\u00a0difficult, and you try to eat but there is no desire. Every time\u00a0the winds calms, you perk up hoping\u00a0the storm has passed but then it comes back with double the force.<\/p>\n

For those who reed to a lower camp to spend the night, the mental and physical game is even tougher. They have just used a lot of energy to go higher, along\u00a0with a lot of mental focus only to be asked to retrace their steps lower.<\/p>\n

All in all these events are\u00a0a true test of determination, and for some strength to go higher.<\/p>\n

A Cyclone Plays with Weather Mix<\/h3>\n

Meteorologists Chris\u00a0Tomer of\u00a0Tomer Weather Solutions <\/a>based in Denver has been providing weather forecasts for climbers on Everest, the Karakoram, South America\u00a0and Denali for several years now. He gave me his thoughts today on what Everest and Lhotse climbers might experience over the next several days, and it involves a Tropical Cyclone!<\/p>\n

As the 2nd Everest summit window closes fast will there be a 3rd window for climbers? The answer is “Yes” with an important caveat. The caveat is Tropical Cyclone 01B. Tropical cyclone 01B developed off the coast of India and will hug the coast of India as it tracks into the Bay of Bengal over the next 5 days. To be clear, Tropical Cyclone 01B will NOT deliver a direct hit to Everest. But, it will slightly influence the larger weather pattern over Everest by dropping atmospheric pressure levels and possibly increasing humidity levels. So, how reliable is this 3rd Summit Window? If you just look at summit winds the answer is that it looks pretty good this weekend. And get this: There could be a 4th window early next week. But, as Tropical Cyclone 01B approaches the chances for snowfall on Everest increase at the same time. It will be a balancing act with more weather risk than what is considered normal. It will be critical for Teams to stay up-to-date with every new weather update.<\/p>\n

Meteorologist Chris Tomer Tomer Weather Solutions<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Crowds?<\/h3>\n

Meanwhile, there might be some crowding as teams seem to be in a rush\u00a0to push for the summit. Nepal Tourism Board representative,\u00a0Gyanendra Shrestha<\/a>, based\u00a0at Everest Base Camp reported there could be as many as 474 people summit just from Nepal over the next four days!<\/p>\n

He outlines the season thus far and provides this estimate based on talks with team leaders at base camp. These numbers include the military expeditions\u00a0that are sometimes left out of the permit numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
May 2016 Summit Days<\/td>\nSherpas\/High Altitude Workers<\/td>\nForeigner Summits<\/td>\nDay Summits<\/td>\nTotal Summits<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
11<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
12<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n15<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
13<\/td>\n13<\/td>\n14<\/td>\n27<\/td>\n42<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
14<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n45<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
15<\/td>\n13<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n22<\/td>\n67<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
16<\/td>\n11<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n20<\/td>\n87<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2016 summits\u00a0thus far<\/strong><\/td>\n51<\/strong><\/td>\n36<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/strong><\/td>\n87<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
18<\/td>\n58<\/td>\n41<\/td>\n99<\/td>\n186<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
19<\/td>\n110<\/td>\n97<\/td>\n207<\/td>\n393<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
20<\/td>\n70<\/td>\n56<\/td>\n126<\/td>\n519<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
21<\/td>\n21<\/td>\n21<\/td>\n42<\/td>\n561<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Estimated total\u00a02016 summits<\/strong><\/td>\n310<\/strong><\/td>\n251<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/strong><\/td>\n561<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

18 May Nepal Departures for South COL for Summit<\/h4>\n

(representative, not full list)<\/h4>\n