{"id":25327,"date":"2017-02-07T16:30:16","date_gmt":"2017-02-07T23:30:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.alanarnette.com\/blog\/?p=25327"},"modified":"2017-05-03T08:04:45","modified_gmt":"2017-05-03T14:04:45","slug":"look-everest-2017-one-records","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alanarnette.com\/blog\/2017\/02\/07\/look-everest-2017-one-records\/","title":{"rendered":"Look for Everest 2017 to be One for the Records"},"content":{"rendered":"

While most Everest followers are keeping a close eye on Alex Txikon<\/a>‘s imminent winter summit push, the traditional spring season in just seven weeks away. And it looks to be one for the record\u00a0books!<\/p>\n

I am expecting over 600 summits from the South (Nepal) side and well over 200 from the North (Tibet) totaling 800 from\u00a0both sides, smashing the record\u00a0set in 2013 with 658 total summits from both sides. In 2016, 641\u00a0climbers made the summit from both sides.<\/p>\n

Record\u00a0Summits and\u00a0New Climbers<\/h3>\n

I base this prediction on the record autumn 2016 summits on Manaslu and high traffic on Cho Oyu. These peaks are often used as the final peak before\u00a0going to Everest. Also, after the tragic seasons of 2014 and 2015, \u00a02016 was\u00a0a relatively safe season\u00a0thus giving many people the false confidence that 2017 will also\u00a0be safe.<\/p>\n

Finally, many Nepalese operators have broken the stranglehold that long time western operators had on Everest. By breaking into the market using price, now they have proven they can run expeditions that meet the needs of a different market, primarily the Indian and Chinese middle class. This change has brought in 50 to 150 additional climbers each year\u00a0for the past few seasons and is expected to grow. Many of\u00a0the new members are climbing Everest now due to extremely low prices, regardless of their experience.<\/p>\n

While I cannot verify all the statments made in this report of three\u00a0Indian\u00a0climbers who lost their lives\u00a0in 2016, the article is illustrative of\u00a0the risks and well worth a read: An Avoidable Tragedy<\/a>.<\/p>\n

These are a few of the Everest storylines to watch.<\/p>\n

Steck Back to Everest\/Lhotse<\/h3>\n

Uli Steck<\/a> is supposed to attempt a Everest\/Lhotse traverse – without supplemental oxygen. Steck is a bit wary of Everest after his clash with Sherpas\u00a0on the Lhotse Face in 2013.<\/p>\n

I’m sure Everest followers will recall the incident when Simone Moro and Sherpas who were fixing rope of the Face clashed about who had the ‘right’ to be there. Of course, both had the right but neither was very respectful\u00a0of the other. Steck got caught in the middle and keeps his distance from\u00a0Everest these days. Yet the call of the world’s highest peak is strong, even to someone of Steck’s fortitude.<\/p>\n

Similar to a plan\u00a0in 2013, Steck wants to take the West Ridge up to the summit of Everest then the ridge from the South\u00a0Col direct to the summit of Lhotse, according to an interview\u00a0with German climber and blogger Stefan Nestler <\/a>in\u00a0December 2016.<\/p>\n

This would, of course, be the most beautiful, the perfect option. It\u2019s my big dream if it works that way. But we have to look at the conditions. You can not say yet how they will be. Maybe I have to do the traverse via the normal route, and then, only in the next step, via the West Shoulder. I see that very realistically.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Did Everest Shrink?<\/h3>\n

After gaining approval from the Nepal Government, \u00a0the Indians\u00a0are remeasuring<\/a> Everest this year to see what difference the 2015 earthquake had on the height. Reports immediately after the quake suggested Everest had dropped by 2 inches, about 5 cm but it was an estimate based on satellite\u00a0data. \u00a0One would think that measuring the world’s highest peak would be somewhat easy given satellites, GPS and sliderules, but not so fast – even the naming has a convoluted history!<\/p>\n

In 1841 the\u00a0Great Trigonometric Survey<\/a>\u00a0led by Welsh\u00a0surveyor Sir George Everest<\/a> identified the location of the mountain. Fifteen years later using trigonometry and measurements from 12 different survey stations around the mountain, Indian Radhanath Sikdar<\/a>, a member of the\u00a0survey team, finished the calculations and determined they had found the world’s highest mountain. They called it\u00a0\u2018Peak XV\u2019 and noted it was 29,002 feet.<\/p>\n

In 1865 it was re-named Mt. Everest, against Sir Everest’s wishes, even though for centuries the Tibetans had called it Chomolungma. The Nepalese\u00a0finally gave it their own name in the mid 20 century as Sagarmatha. In 1955, the height was adjusted to 29,028\u2032.<\/p>\n

On May 5, 1999 a National Geographic Society Expedition put a GPS receiver on the summit. Using a second Trimble GPS receiver at the 26,000\u2032 on the South Col they made\u00a0an extremely accurate measurement by running the two receivers simultaneously. The new altitude was measured\u00a0to be 29,035 feet or 8,850 meters.<\/p>\n

However, the Nepalese still use 29,028\u2032 (8847m) as the official altitude. And the Chinese use 29,015 (8844m). The difference being if you count the snow on top of the rock at the summit or not. I still don\u2019t know how they measured the ever changing snow depth.<\/p>\n

To further complicate things, Everest is still growing as the Indian plate continues it\u2019s move north under Asia. This is what originally created the Himalayan Range. Everest is estimated to grow 1\/4\u2033 each year and is over a foot higher than when it was first summited in 1953. This according to Professor Roger Bilham.<\/p>\n

So what is the official height? It appears a compromise was reached and the official height of Mt. Everest is \u2026.\u00a0 both 29,015 and 29,028. Nepal and China agreed to accept each others measurement. Meanwhile most climbers use 29,035 feet or 8850 meters because it is higher. But we will see what the Indian Survey comes up with, and who will accept it! Glad we got that cleared up!<\/p>\n

Old Everest Climbers<\/h3>\n

In the race to be the oldest person to summit Everest, 2017 will have another race. Nepali\u00a0Min Bahadur Sherchan, now 86 years-old, is going to give the summit another try. He is jonesing to break his main competitor’s record, Japanese Yuichiro Miura who owns the oldest record at age 80 set in 2013.<\/p>\n

Sherchan\u00a0is quoted<\/a> as saying:<\/p>\n

I have a lot of respect for Yuichiro Miura after he beat my record. But I am still fit and eager to reach the top of the mountain again and get my title back. I am doing a lot of long walks with a weighted bag on my back to stay in shape. I am a very positive person and have always maintained a good diet. My main aim now is to successfully reach the top of Mount Everest again. I want to take back my crown for Nepal and for the Brigade of Gurkhas<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

And Wales climber, and friend, Jeff Smith<\/a> is wanting to set a record of his own, at least in Wales, by being the oldest to summit Everest. He has had two hip replacements and arthritis in his knees, but thats not stopping his dream. He was there in 2014\u00a0when an avalanche\u00a0did just that, but Jeff is a determined individual and will be back this season at a young 53!<\/p>\n

And Many More!<\/h3>\n

It is amazing how many people are climbing Everest this year seeking to honor family, causes and perhaps to fulfill a lifetime dream. Best of luck to all.<\/p>\n

Keep training hard and get in Everest Shape, which is significantly better than the “best shape of your life”. You will need it at 3:00 am on the Southeast Ridge when the wind gusts to 50 mph and the temperature hovers at -30F.<\/p>\n

Climb On!
\nAlan
\nMemories are Everything<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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