{"id":30190,"date":"2018-05-11T11:02:10","date_gmt":"2018-05-11T17:02:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.alanarnette.com\/blog\/?p=30190"},"modified":"2019-04-06T12:28:17","modified_gmt":"2019-04-06T18:28:17","slug":"everest-2018-summit-strategies-as-forecast-improves-helicopter-for-boyan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alanarnette.com\/blog\/2018\/05\/11\/everest-2018-summit-strategies-as-forecast-improves-helicopter-for-boyan\/","title":{"rendered":"Everest 2018: Summit Strategies as Forecast Improves, Helicopter for Boyan"},"content":{"rendered":"

An atmosphere of optimism has overtaken Everest as the winds are predicted to calm, and the temperature warms. Climbers are feeling the summit in their bones for the first time this season. The schedule appears to be: fixed ropes to the summit over the next few days, first member summits around 13th<\/sup> May and then next week we will see summits daily on both sides. Of course, all of this assumes the jet stream has moved away which is a pretty good assumption, but still an assumption. \u00a0The big day next week will be around mid week, 16\/17th<\/sup> May.<\/p>\n

Big Picture<\/h3>\n

It’s a mixed bag across the Himalaya and especially on Everest, some teams are still down valley on “holiday”, others are waiting in base camp and a few have moved to mid-level camps in anticipation of the ropes being fixed to the summit any day now. The Sherpa team setting the ropes are about to the Balcony on the Nepal side leaving “only” 1,535’\/467m to the summit. They are hoping to get there on 12th<\/sup> May, Saturday, thus opening up the route for teams on Sunday the 13th<\/sup>. It’s a similar story on the Tibet side with the ropes well above Camp 3. Teams are sending their Sherpas up to stock the high camps, on both sides, with oxygen, fuel and tents. \u00a0There were 300 Sherpas reported in the Khumbu Icefall on Friday, 11th<\/sup> May. High winds hit Camp 2 destroying some tents the last few days but nothing serious has been reported.\u00a0Not to be forgotten, nearby Lhotse has climbers at C3 on the Lhotse Face and may summit Saturday 12 May.<\/p>\n

Wind or No Wind?<\/h3>\n

Russell Brice<\/a> probably has more trips on Everest than most any leader. He studies the weather forecast like a text book and draws his own conclusion with support from the Swiss outfit Meteoexploration<\/a>. He is a bit uncomfortable at this time, especially about the windchill near the summit for his team:<\/p>\n

My understanding of the weather forecast is that it will remain at -30 on the summit for the coming days, and that the wind will be variable between 20 \u2013 30km for the next few days. This is outside my normal parameters for safety as the wind chill factor is rather cold. I am sure that there will be several teams pushing for the summit during this time, but the risk of frostbite is quite high, so I wish them all a safe return, with no damage. In the meanwhile our team will be patient and will wait for a calmer period and warmer temperatures in a few days time. Of course we like to think that we are understanding the weather very well…but it is always changing, and so we also need to be adaptable, and try and be in the right place at the right time.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Looking at the public forecast\u00a0Meteoexploration<\/a>\u00a0 has on their site, it predicts windy and cold over the weekend but warmer and calmer into next week supporting Russ’s comments.<\/p>\n

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Everest Weather May 11-19 2018 by Meteoexploration<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Nepal: Ropes to Balcony, Summits all Next Week<\/h3>\n

\"EverestER<\/a>First EverestER<\/a> has been busy as usual and posted these numbers. There are about 1,000 people at base camp. Remember they are all volunteer and live off donations<\/a>:<\/p>\n