{"id":39520,"date":"2021-05-19T09:52:29","date_gmt":"2021-05-19T15:52:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.alanarnette.com\/blog\/?p=39520"},"modified":"2021-05-19T09:52:29","modified_gmt":"2021-05-19T15:52:29","slug":"everest-2021-will-they-summit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alanarnette.com\/blog\/2021\/05\/19\/everest-2021-will-they-summit\/","title":{"rendered":"Everest 2021: Will They Summit?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Between cyclones, an ever-shortening weather window, rising COVID rates, and now the Icefall Doc saying the route will be closed on Saturday, May 29, what are the chances of seeing summits? Excellent, I&#8217;d say. Let&#8217;s break it down.<\/p>\n<h3>Potential Summit Schedule<\/h3>\n<p>Some teams are already at Camp 2, with estimates as high as 200 people (members and Sherpas) but I think probably less. A few are already at Camp 3 and perhaps one or two at the South Col. There are confirmed reports of tents being blown away at the Col, so teams will have to improvise. Given today is already May 20 in Nepal, here&#8217;s a potential schedule. I assume worse case with the second cyclone arriving around May 26. If it veers away, which some forecast has it behaving, it opens up more time to spread out the summit attempts:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>May 19: Teams at EBC\/C1\/2\/3<\/li>\n<li>20: Teams at C1\/2\/3\/SC<\/li>\n<li>21: Teams at C2\/3\/SC<\/li>\n<li>22: Teams at C3\/SC, Summits<\/li>\n<li>23: Summits<\/li>\n<li>24: Summits<\/li>\n<li>25: Back to C2<\/li>\n<li>26: Cyclone #2?<\/li>\n<li>27: Cyclone #2?<\/li>\n<li>28: All high camps cleared<\/li>\n<li>29: Icefall route closed<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Overall, I estimate between 250 and 300 total people left to summit throughout this peroid. See my<a href=\"https:\/\/www.alanarnette.com\/blog\/2021\/02\/28\/everest-2021-team-locations-and-headlines\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> location table<\/a> for team locations.<\/p>\n<p>I expect these teams to head up now: <a href=\"http:\/\/climbingthesevensummits.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Climbing the Seven Summits<\/a>\u00a0(partial), <a href=\"http:\/\/www.mountainguides.com\/everest-south19.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">IMG<\/a>\u00a0(partial), <a href=\"http:\/\/madisonmountaineering.com\/dispatches\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Madison Mountaineering<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mtnprofessionals.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mountain Professionals<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.summitclimb.com\/news\/recent\/everest-nepal-news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Summit Climb<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/7summitsclub.com\/news\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">7 Summits Club<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/pioneeradventuretreks\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Pioneer Adventure,.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>And for the last major wave of the season around May 27\/28: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.alpineascents.com\/climbs\/mount-everest\/cybercasts\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Alpine Ascents Int.<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.altitudejunkies.com\/dispatcheverest21.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Altitude Junkies<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.asian-trekking.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Asian Trekking<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.elitehimalayanadventures.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Elite Expeditions<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/mountaintrip.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mountain Trip<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/climbalaya\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Climbalaya<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.satoriadventuresnepal.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Satori Adventures<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/HimalayanAscent\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Himalaya Ascent<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.himexnepal.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Himalaya Expedition<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>As usual, I&#8217;ll closely follow the summit wave and report frequently on their progress. Best of luck to all.<\/p>\n<p>Climb On!<br \/>\nAlan<br \/>\nMemories are Everything<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>The Podcast on alanarnette.com<\/h2>\n<p>You can listen to #everest2021 <strong>podcasts<\/strong> on <a href=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/show\/2uu2RcE9WiFKzSGl50oFKY\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Spotify<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/the-podcast-on-alanarnette-com\/id1567287947\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Apple Podcast<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.breaker.audio\/the-podcast-on-alanarnette-dot-com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Breaker<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/podcasts?feed=aHR0cHM6Ly9hbmNob3IuZm0vcy81MTc3MjdlYy9wb2RjYXN0L3Jzcw==\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Google Podcasts<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/pca.st\/otq8ztfv\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Pocket Casts<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/radiopublic.com\/the-podcast-on-alanarnettecom-G2R7r0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">RadioPublic<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/anchor.fm\/alan-arnette1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Anchor<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCPg__zM9MzjNjDyyjTDr7ZQ\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">YouTube<\/a>, and more. Just search for &#8220;alan arnette&#8221; on your favorite podcast platform.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Between cyclones, an ever-shortening weather window, rising COVID rates, and now the Icefall Doc saying the route will be closed on Saturday, May 29, what are the chances of seeing summits? Excellent, I&#8217;d say. Let&#8217;s break it down.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":24986,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Between cyclones, an ever shortening weather window, rising COVID rates and now the Icefall Doc saying the route will be closed on Saturday May 29, what are the chances of seeing summits? Excellent, I'd say. Let's break it down.","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"dois","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"_wpas_customize_per_network":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[7,147,599,81,216],"tags":[432,448,603,439],"class_list":["post-39520","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climbing-news","category-everest","category-everest-2021-coverage","category-everest-news","category-everest-popular-posts","tag-climbing-news","tag-everest","tag-everest-2021-coverage","tag-everest-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Everest 2021: Will They Summit? - The Blog on alanarnette.com<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"alanarnette.com is a site covering big mountain climbing including Everest, K2, and the 7 summits. 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