{"id":40464,"date":"2022-04-26T12:41:21","date_gmt":"2022-04-26T18:41:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.alanarnette.com\/blog\/?p=40464"},"modified":"2022-05-02T08:33:59","modified_gmt":"2022-05-02T14:33:59","slug":"everest-2022-when-will-they-summit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alanarnette.com\/blog\/2022\/04\/26\/everest-2022-when-will-they-summit\/","title":{"rendered":"Everest 2022: When Will They Summit?"},"content":{"rendered":"

We’ll see multiple summits over the next couple of days on several 8000-meter peaks. The ropes are almost to the South Col on Everest, and the Sherpa rope team is making good progress. There seem’s to be a high number of female climbers this year, many wanting to records. As we move towards May, it’s time to start asking, “When will they summit?”<\/p>\n

Big Picture<\/h2>\n

I spoke live with Garrett Madison from Everest Base Camp last night, April 25 in the U.S. They had just returned from their first rotation. Garret reported all was well, and the conditions are pretty good overall. He said he expects the fixed rope to reach the South Col in a day or so and perhaps the summit by May 1. Both Camps 1 & 2 are filled with people on their rotations. The Icefall is pretty busy these days, right on schedule.\u00a0<\/span>See the<\/span>\u00a0tracking table<\/span><\/a>\u00a0for the latest team locations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Clean Up at Camp 2<\/h2>\n

Italian Alpinist and helicopter pilot Simone Morro flew multiple missions to Camp 2 to ferry ropes and gear to put in the fixed ropes. This is tremendous because it limits scores of trips through the Icefall by Sherpas, and reduces their overall risks. After dropping off the gear, trash was loaded from the area and flown back down valley for proper disposal.<\/p>\n

Many teams were forced to abandon tents and gear in 2015 after the earthquake hit. With people needing to hustle to get flown out so the helicopters could be used elsewhere in Nepal, Camp 2 became very littered. There have been multiple clean-up efforts since then, but this year, we are seeing a more coordinated effort. Thanks to all. \u00a0From Simone<\/a>:<\/p>\n

Everest Camp 2 (6450 m.) and Everest Lhotse and Nuptse from 7200 mt. Today 11 rotations carrying heavy material and taking away garbage from Camp 2. In this way the crossing of the Icefall serac, very dangerous for the Sherpas, was avoided.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Also, making a hugely positive contribution is Seven Summits Treks using their helicopters. This from\u00a0Tashi Lakpa Sherpa<\/strong><\/a><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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800kg rubbish was recovered from Everest camp 2 to base camp on 23 April 2022. In initiation of @14peaksexpedition<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

When Will They Summit?<\/h2>\n

As teams are slowly making their way to their base camps, a common question asked every year is “When will they summit?” Of course, we never know for sure but looking at the historical data starting from 1953 to 2019, we can make a very good guess. I left off 2021 because it had so many issues with COVID, it skews the data.\u00a0The Himalayan Database<\/a> is a treasure trove of data but it takes some work to find what you want. I spent a bit, actually a lot, time looking at how many people summited each day from both sides, all routes. And there were a few surprises.<\/p>\n

May Days!<\/h3>\n

The spring season accounts for 96% of all summits on Everest while summer and winter are less than 1%. But the real action takes place on both sides during the third week of May, every year. Specifically, 80% of all Everest summits occur between the 15th<\/sup> and the 27th<\/sup> of May. Slicing even finer, May 21st<\/sup> is THE day when climbing from Tibet as is May 19th<\/sup> on the Nepal side.<\/p>\n

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All Everest summits from all routes by day from 1953-to 2019. source: Himalayan Database<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Other Days<\/h3>\n

We know that Everest has been summited in all seasons, however, you define “seasons”\u00a0 \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

Remember that climbing from the Nepal side effectively ends at the end of May when the Icefall Doctors stop maintaining the route through the Khumbu Icefall. As summer approaches, it gets hotter and the monsoon moves in with heavy rain and snow. It becomes too dangerous to be climbing as the Icefall becomes even more unstable. However, since there is no equivalent Khumbu Icefall on the Tibet side, climbers can continue climbing into June or until the monsoon hits that side. As a result, we see summits as late as June 14 on the north side.<\/p>\n

Summer is miserable with heavy snow up high and sweltering monsoonal rain down low, as a result, there are few summer summits, only 9 ever!\u00a0There are a few days that seem to be significant in the Autumn. Around mid-October, there is a spike on the Nepal side and slightly earlier on the Tibet side.<\/p>\n

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Everest summits from all routes from 1953-to 2019. source: Himalayan Database<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

For the Visual Readers<\/h3>\n

This chart shows all the days when all the Everest summits occurred.<\/p>\n

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All Everest summits from all routes by day from 1953-to 2017. source: Himalayan Database<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

So as you can see, summits occur often on Everest but there are a few “auspicious” days. \u00a0A few more trivia items for you:<\/p>\n