{"id":42244,"date":"2022-07-10T16:33:17","date_gmt":"2022-07-10T22:33:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.alanarnette.com\/blog\/?p=42244"},"modified":"2022-07-31T08:59:18","modified_gmt":"2022-07-31T14:59:18","slug":"k2-summer-2022-weekend-update-july-10-deaths-rescues-and-summits","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alanarnette.com\/blog\/2022\/07\/10\/k2-summer-2022-weekend-update-july-10-deaths-rescues-and-summits\/","title":{"rendered":"K2 Summer 2022: Weekend Update July 10: Deaths, Rescues and Summits"},"content":{"rendered":"

It’s been a dramatic week in the Pakistani mountains. We saw summits on a couple of 8000ers, climbers in trouble, and tragically two deaths. The weather is currently keeping the K2 teams at base camp but look for a rush starting later this next week\u2014all in all, a normal season thus far, despite the record number of climbers.<\/p>\n

Big Picture – Will 2022 K2 be like Everest 2019?<\/h2>\n

As I’ve mentioned multiple times, Pakistan has taken a page out of Nepal’s tourism book and issued permits to anyone and everyone this season. Some reports say 1,400, others closer to 1,000, but there are at least twice the number of tourists in the Northern Terorities than ever before.<\/p>\n

Among these drivers of these crowds is pent-up demand from COVID and aggressive marketing from five Nepali operators: 8K Expeditions, Elite Expeditions, Imaging Nepal, Pioneer Adventures, and Seven Summits Treks. Combined, these account for 253 people – clients and support of mostly Sherpas from Nepal. However, the western operators are also cashing in with Madison Mountaineering and Furtenbach Adventures, accounting for 54 spots on the mountains.<\/p>\n

Now, is this too many people spread across five 8000-meter peaks? The answer is it depends. Taking Everest as an example, these days, we see 300, 500, or even 700 people climbing from the Nepal side each spring season. This year, 2022 (click to read my analysis)<\/a>, I estimate 325 clients supported by 500 Sherpas were on the Nepal side and 640 summited Everest with no serious crowding issues. These are huge mountains that can accommodate lots of people – spread out.<\/p>\n

The problem occurs when there are only a few suitable weather days to summit, i.e., winds under 30 mph. In 2019 (click to read my analysis,)<\/a> we saw a nightmare situation with only three good days for 600 people; thus, long lines from the South Summit to the Summit resulted in 660 summits and nine deaths. Note that in my judgment, four of the eleven were ‘crowd-related’ deaths and an additional seven with ‘low-cost’ operators.<\/p>\n

So just looking at K2 because it is the steepest of Pakastani’s 8000ers with the smallest spots for tents at the traditional camps, will the estimated 250 to 350 climbers experience an Everest 2019 scenario, especially at the traditional crowded spots like House’s Chimney, and the Bottleneck? Well, if K2 behaves like it traditionally has with short weather windows between strong wind and snow storms, yes. But, if teams can coordinate summit pushes and tent space, things might go smoother than expected. I’ve been told teams are communicating well and sharing tents thus far. If this turns out to be true, look for many leaders to jump in front of the summit parade and claim it as their own.<\/p>\n

Weather And Comms<\/h2>\n

On a side note, it appears communication, at least using the 4G mobile network, is back up and running; no word on the mysterious satellite disruptions. Also, the overall weather this season has been significantly warmer or should I say milder than usual, making for some sloshy climbing conditions. Cleary climate change is having an impact on the world’s mountains. The last time I checked, snow does not like warm temperatures, and it brings out the rocks!<\/p>\n

Chris Tomer of Tomer Weather solutions is providing professional, human-curated weather forecasts to multiple teams in the Karakorum. He tells me that after a long stretch leading up to this unsettled period, the area basically had no jet and abnormally warm temps. The freezing level was running 20k each day and will now start to fall. He went on to predict:<\/p>\n

Unsettled period with jet overhead and snow likely 7\/11-7\/16. At times, there is a capping layer with snow below 7000m and drier above, but it might not hold 7\/14-7\/15. Strong wind 30-60mph at higher camps entire period.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

K2 – Ready for the Summit but Holding<\/h2>\n

To start, it appears only the Abruzzi route, aka SE Ridge, which is being used this year, and not the Cesen as it’s deemed too avalanche-prone; thus, all the teams are competing for space at the camps.<\/p>\n

We are getting hints at how teams deal with the record crowds and limited spaces – dig more platforms and make more camps! First off, the second photo taken by South African Warren Eva this week shows about 20 tents at the traditional Camp 1, around 20,000 feet\/6100-meters. However, there is a second Camp 1, aka the so-called “Japanese” Camp, at 5800-meters, about 300 meters or 1,000 lower than the traditional Camp 1, over an hour climb. There is a semi-flat spot just behind a large rock outcropping that is suitable for a few tents.<\/p>\n

Garrett Madison told me that he is letting other teams use their tents. He said he was among the first to set up the higher camps and dig platforms for the tents. The traditional Camp 1 can accommodate around 20 tightly spaced tents (if you dig more platforms), whereas, in the other camp, there are around 10, suggesting that about 60 to 90 people could squeeze in for the night using both camps.<\/p>\n