{"id":45235,"date":"2024-06-05T16:38:24","date_gmt":"2024-06-05T22:38:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.alanarnette.com\/blog\/?p=45235"},"modified":"2024-06-06T14:24:42","modified_gmt":"2024-06-06T20:24:42","slug":"everest-2024-season-summary-everest-at-a-rubicon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.alanarnette.com\/blog\/2024\/06\/05\/everest-2024-season-summary-everest-at-a-rubicon\/","title":{"rendered":"Everest 2024: Season Summary – Everest at a Rubicon"},"content":{"rendered":"

Everest 2024 might be remembered for summits, politics, deaths, ignored rules, near misses and disturbing allegations of sexual misconduct. It’s difficult to put all this in a headline, but I believe the Everest guiding industry is at a Rubicon – a point of no return.<\/p>\n

Not to be lost in this mix is the joy and satisfaction felt by hundreds of summiteers. They worked and trained diligently to celebrate standing on the top of the world for only a few minutes. It’s funny how you can work so long for a goal, and the moment is over in a blink, but the memory lasts a lifetime\u2014well done to all who summited, to those who showed up.<\/p>\n

Once again, the Sherpas proved they dominated the mountain with impressive altitude performance. The Himalayan Database shows that between 1950 and 2023, 6,097 Sherpas have summited Everest compared to 5,899 members, and that gap is growing each year. However, more foreigners have died than Sherpas, 197 compared to 118.<\/p>\n

Big Picture<\/h2>\n

We may have heard the last chirps from Everest\u2019s “canary in the coal mine.” Between the difficulty of getting the fixed ropes through the Icefall and the collapse of a cornice at the Hillary Step, climbing the reliable Southeast Ridge route could be at risk. The cause is most probably a warming environment.<\/p>\n

Nepal’s winter was warmer and drier than any in the earlier decade. Temperatures climbed higher than the winter average, while precipitation was lower than average. Mountains, notably the Himalayas, are geologically unstable. These warm, dry conditions may have affected the Khumbu Icefall, creating challenges for the Icefall Doctors.<\/p>\n

As for summits, I estimate Everest had around 670 summits this spring, well below the 2019 record of 877. The final number will come from the Nepal government and the Himalayan Database in a few months.<\/p>\n

From the Nepal side, I estimate 250 clients, supported by 350 Sherpas, summited, totaling about 600 summits. This level of support came in at a 1:1.4 client-to-support ratio. Nepal issued 421 foreign permits, which makes for a 59% success rate compared to 58% for members in Nepal from 2000 to 2023, per the Himalayan Database. On the Tibet side, I estimate summits by around thirty clients, supported by forty support climbers.<\/p>\n

All eight of the 2024 deaths were clients with Nepali operators. In 2023, fifteen of the eighteen deaths were with Nepal operators. In just two years, twenty-three people who have died were associated with Nepali mountain guide companies, 88% of the total for the two years, dispositionally higher than their market share.<\/p>\n

Uneven Beginning<\/h2>\n
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The Everest Spring season began with problems on the Tibet side. This was the first year since 2019 that foreign climbers could climb from Tibet after China closed the peak to foreigners, ostensibly because of COVID.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Using vague language about public holidays, China closed the Nepal\u2013Tibet border until May 7 instead of the usual mid\u2013April opening. The delay sent all but three foreign teams back to Nepal, fearing that a shorter season would reduce their summit chances.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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I incorrectly thought more climbers would rush to climb on the Nepal side and avoid paying the higher permit fee scheduled for 2025. The fee will increase by 30% from $11,000 to $15,000 per permit. However, permit numbers were lower this year than last year: 427 compared to 487, a 13% drop.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The highly skilled Icefall Doctors tried in vain to find a straightforward path through the Khumbu Icefall, the troll on the Nepal side that demands satisfaction before allowing anyone into the Western Cwm. They finally found a suitable route for the fixed ropes, which was circuitous and life-sucking long. Some early climbers saw the expected six-hour journey drag to ten.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

First Summits<\/h2>\n
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Teams spent the delays acclimatizing on Nepal’s trekking peaks\u2013Island, Lobuche, and Mera. The route reached Camp 2 on May 18th<\/sup>. The next milestone was to get the ropes from C2 to the summit, thus opening the route for the commercial teams.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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A few people wanted to climb without supplemental oxygen, and usually, they needed to tag the South Col, so they anxiously awaited the Seven Summits Treks rope team to finish the job. The ropes reached the summit on May 10th<\/sup>, and the first foreigner summit was on May 11th<\/sup>\u00a0<\/span>by Ukrainian climber Valentyn Sypavin with Sanu Sherpa.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Meanwhile, by May 7th<\/sup>, the Tibetan rope team set up the summit route on the North side before the first foreign team could enter the country.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Wind or No Wind<\/h2>\n

This year may have been a bit more difficult than usual, with sporadic wind days. I used to call the weather windows “Summit Waves,” but they were more like Tsunamis with the occasional puddles this year. Usually, we see hundreds of summits each day, but this year, it was as few as two people for the entire day.<\/p>\n

Professional forecasters like Chris Tomer<\/a>, Michael Fagin<\/a>, Marc DeKeyser<\/a>, and Meteoexploration<\/a> provide human-curated forecasts for\u00a0the best teams. Other teams use free forecasts from the Internet<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Chris Tomer<\/a> summarized the season:<\/p>\n

Everest is a well-oiled machine. I think we lucked out this season with such a large window. Crowding and anticipation of crowding drive a lot of decision-making. The two summit windows were well forecasted. I was impressed by the teams, like CTSS, who were ready and willing to hit the first window (May 11-14). I was also impressed by teams like Madison, who normally wait and take the late window, knowing there\u2019s no guarantee.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Michael Fagin<\/a> (Everestweather) compared ’24 to a few previous seasons in the key areas that impact summit winds:<\/p>\n

Cyclone<\/strong><\/p>\n

In 2021, two cyclones impacted the Everest region. On May 21, 2024, an area of low pressure formed in the Bay of Bengal and strengthened, becoming severe Cyclone Rema by May 26. On May 27, it made\u00a0landfall in Bangladesh. The storm then curved east, far away from Everest. Of course, most climbers were done with the summits by this time.<\/p>\n

Jet stream<\/strong><\/p>\n

This season was not like the 2022 season when the jet stream was located to the north and because this provided extended good weather windows. Alan was quoted as saying,\u00a0 <\/span>\u201cFor May, the jet stream was on vacation.\u201d\u00a0 <\/span>Looking at May 2024, the jet impacted Everest from May 15 through May 18. I have not looked at statistical data, but in most seasons, the jet is over Everest generally more than roughly four days this season.<\/p>\n

Moderate\/Heavy Snow<\/strong><\/p>\n

There are usually several days when we see some moderate snowfall, which happens more often than not when a cyclone emerges from the Bay of Bengal. I believe there was one day of steady snowfall this season, perhaps up to 5\u201d in one day.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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So, with forecasting being “well-oiled,” it was perplexing to see teams make summit bids on days in high winds.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The best-managed teams like Adventure Consultants<\/a>, made real-time decisions rather than force a bad position. “Our initial planned summit day is not looking as good as it could. So, we will sit tight, continue to monitor the weather and keep you updated as we go. For now, even though Camp 2 is hard for your loved ones, it’s a little more fun today!”<\/p>\n

Pushing the Known Limits<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n
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Unbelievably, around 50 people turned back after trying to summit on May 12th<\/sup> with winds forecasted to gust to 50 mph. The top limit for the best teams is 30 mph. Why expedition leaders choose to put their clients in obvious danger is beyond me. That said, it’s well documented that some operators have a different risk tolerance than others.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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We’ve seen this many times, for example, last autumn on Manaslu when every Western operator abandoned their climbs after seeing several deaths due to avalanches and continuing heavy snowfall and high winds. At the same time, all the Nepali operators stayed for an extended time to make more attempts before eventually reaching the same conclusion.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\"Everest
Everest 2024 courtesy of Rajan-Dwivedi<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Summit Summary<\/h2>\n

Despite the erratic winds, teams had enough days to spread out. However, due to the uncertainty, when a window appeared, so did the masses. There were very long lines, as shown in one image showing a cue of hundreds between Camp 3 and the Yellow Band.<\/p>\n

With the entry delays into Tibet, the North side totals were much lower than expected. Around 60 people summited almost evenly split between clients and Sherpas.<\/p>\n

On the Nepal side, there were over 600 summits from around 40 teams:<\/p>\n

May 30: 23 on the Tibet side<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Alpenglow Expeditions: All six clients with five guides and twelve Sherpas or 1:2.8<\/p>\n

May 27:<\/span>\u00a05+ (4+ clients with 4+ Sherpas)<\/strong><\/p>\n