With the heavy snowfall, and unrelenting winds, one by one, the ambitious winter plans are falling. There is a reason so few people attempt any of the world’s highest peaks in the winter, and this season is a case study. It appears unlikely anyone will summit this winter … but I could be wrong!
Nepal
There are three efforts underway, Everest via the West Ridge, Cho Oyu, and Manaslu. Anticipating the Everest spring season a little over a month from now, there has been heavy snow reported in the Everest region with as much as two feet in Namche Bazaar. It will be interesting to see the conditions on Everest once the Icefall Doctors begin to fix the route to Camp 2. See my Podcast with Adrian Ballinger of Alpenglow where we discuss the 20002 season and his plans for a no O’s, ski descent on Makalu.
Winter Everest – Poor Weather Continues to Hold Jost Low
The winds just won’t let up for German climber Jost Kobusch trying a no Os solo attempt on Everest’s West Ridge. Thus far he has reached about 6464 meters above the Lho La pass. He gave this brief update reflecting on lessons from the financial industry. Some reports have him staying until the end of February. We’ll see if he can hold out, but then again, he is quite the patient young man.
During my day at Camps One, I read the book “The hour between the dog and the wolf.”📚 It is about the connection between hormones and the tendency to take financial risks. Basically, it describes that during a time when one evaluates events as good and oneself as successful accordingly, the body releases more testosterone and which in turn increases the willingness to take risks. Interestingly, I can transfer this one-to-one to my experience in alpinism.🤯 If I have the feeling that everything is going well on the mountain, I often take higher risks. On the other hand, the author describes that when things are assessed as bad, the body releases more cortisol. In the long run, this makes you less willing to take risks and even tends to make you a bit overcautious.🤔 If it remains this windy here all winter and forces me to wait, this book has definitely raised my awareness of possible hormone-related influences!🙏🏼 Fascinating all this biology! But yes, I use the time and learn every day, even if you can not ascend.💪🏼
Everest has seen only 13 winter summits for 371 attempts out of the total 10,656 summits. The last winter summit, defined by Nepal and the Himalayan Database as December through February was in 1993 by a very strong Japanese team led by Hikaru Hoshino on the SW Face (Bonnington Route). Polish climbers Leszek Cichy and Krzysztof Wielicki were the first on February 17th 1980 via the South Col route with oxygen.
Please see this video interview I did with Jost a few months ago, where we discussed his plans in detail. He says his goal is to reach 8,000-meters and not the summit. You can follow him on Instagram, Facebook, and an excellent 3D view of his current location on his website.
Manaslu – Over
Simone Moro, Alex Txikon, and Oswald Pereira have thrown in the towel – too much snow.
We are using this sunny day to pack everything because tonight it is already starting to snow and it will continue tomorrow and the day after.The problem is that you can’t really go beyond Camp 1. You can easily climb up to Camp 1 because it is protected, but afterwards, when the real climbing begins, the danger of avalanches is high and the wind is a real problem. If the weather remained stable we could also try, but it continues to snow. Today, all together, with the Sherpas, the companions with whom we shared this experience, we looked reality in the face and decided to end it here. Even this fourth attempt of mine was not enough, and today I can say that I have spent exactly one year of my life here on Manaslu.I will soon share more of my thoughts on my fourth attempt of winter ascent of Manaslu.
Cho Oyu – They Continue to Try
Gelje Sherpa‘s team continues to push to create a standard, commercial route on the Nepal side of Cho Oyu but is experiencing poor weather. He posted on IG:
Our team just energized after staying a day in Basecamp and thank you whole Kitchen team who provided us great meal to power up to carry all heavy packs and kept us pushing to fix camp 1. Weather window is until 15th of February so, we planned to keep pushing for fixing until camp 3. Now tomorrow we take a rest in camp 1 and some of our team will head back to basecamp to bring up more fixing gears and supplement oxygen bottles.
Now our goal is set for camp 2. Respect to all our climbing brothers who gave their hundred percent effort and thank you all our basecamp staffs who continue supporting from base and our project manager who is giving his best. We will make it.
Gelje’ team includes Pasang Tendi Sherpa, Lakpa Dendi, Chandra Tamang, Gesman Tamang, Tashi Sherpa, Phuri Kitar Sherpa, Ashot Wenjha Rai and Karma Sherpa.
Pioneer Adventures’s Mingma Dorchi Sherpa is also there trying to achieve the same objective – a commercial route from Nepal. The team includes Mingma Dorchi Sherpa -Team leader, Pemba Ongchhu Sherpa, Pasang Dorjee Sherpa, Mingma Dorchi Sherpa, Pasang Tenji Sherpa, Lakpa Thendu Sherpa, Phurbu Kusang Sherpa, and Karma Gyaljen Sherpa. They have established Base Camp and made a few climbs.
The Nepal side is rarely climbed due to avalanches and other objective dangers. Of the 3,923 summits on Cho, only 135 have been from the Nepal side. In any event, I wish them all safe climbs in their efforts.
Pakistan
Winter K2 at Camp 2
Taiwanese climber Tseng “Grace” Ko-Erh supported by seven support climbers through Dolma Expeditions has established their base camp and has now established Camp 2 for their winter K2 attempt and the Sherpas seem focused on C3, which is above the Black Pyramid. This is where K2’s weather shows itself with high winds, avalanche danger, and object dangers.
With the end of winter at the end of February using the Meteorological definition, or March 20, 2022, using the Astronomical definition, they will need to be aggressive to establish all the camps plus give Grace a chance to fully acclimatize. It can be done but I still feel that it’s an ambitious effort. See my blog post on the subject of winter definitions around the world – it’s not as simple as it appears!
Not everyone is a fan of this expedition. Montage.TV made this scathing criticism:
“… what is happening at K2 has no mountaineering interest for us, where six Sherpas are working, with oxygen, on the mountain to allow their client, with oxygen, to reach the summit. A step back from last year and certainly not the one we hoped for in winter mountaineering.”
With this level of support, I tend to agree with them but will be a win for the Sherpas if they can make it.
Nanga Parbat – Over
As I previously reported the German climber David Göttler posted on Facebook that their effort was over on NP:
I’m a firm believer that so much of life happens as a result of the choices we make. Luck is definitely in the mix as well, more so in the choices life presents us with: but ultimately there are always choices. In the context of our winter expedition to Nanga Parbat here are some of the choices we made from the outset:- the first choice was to climb in a very light alpine style as a team of only two. No fixed ropes and no fixed camps. -the second choice we made before we even left home was that we would not spend the whole winter sitting in BC waiting.
Now we are making our third choice: the long-term weather forecast confirms that there is not a decent weather window on the horizon. The Jet Stream is sitting very comfortably stable just above the summit of Nanga Parbat. (The jet stream is a very strong wind system at very high altitudes that often interferes with climbing on 8000m peaks but that aircraft often take advantage of if it’s a tailwind!) So our third choice is to end our expedition now. It’s not an easy decision, but we have thought carefully, discussed endlessly and listened to our emotions in order to make it.
Were these the right choices? For us, yes. The first choice, undoubtedly so. The second and third – maybe a great weather window appears in a couple of weeks that would have been perfect, but we have chosen not to take the risk of sitting endlessly in the cold waiting for that small chance. I am happy with what I have learned and with the time I’ve spent here. Now it’s time to move on. I’ve been reading Musashi by Eiji Yoshikawa whilst I’ve been here, and a great quote comes to mind: “I will do nothing that I will regret”
Climb On!
Alan
Memories are Everything
