Everest 2018: Taking Weather Risks

Dhaulagiri 2017 high winds. courtesy of Peter Hamor

Everything has been going so well on #Everest2018 that it had to end soon given the history of this mountain. It seems that not everyone is happy about the rope fixing and with high winds about to hit some are taking risks to summit and return before it hits on Cho Oyu. Everest teams are still dong rotations. It looks like Everest will be quiet thru 11 May – if the forecast are correct.

Big Picture

There is a lot going on all over the Himalaya right now. Most big Himalayan peaks, including Everest, are summited from mid to late May as the Jet Stream moves out now the area. This means that the climbers have finished their acclimatization climbs well before then. After those climbs, they usually take a week or so to rest up, regain strength, let small aches and coughs go away before heading to the summit. Of course it’s the weather that always has the last word on summit schedule. In any event, this is exactly where we are today, 4/5 May 2018.

Rope Discord

Mingma G. Sherpa, who has made a name for himself the last couple of years with multiple 8000 meter summits in the same season and pushing in difficult weather is now critiquing the efforts of the rope fixing team run by Prestige Adventures and Maddison Mountaineering:

Our Everest team finished acclimatization, went to Kathmandu for rest and back to base camp already and waiting in Base Camp for Summit way to be fixed. There are 4 person allocated for route fixing but it looks like we need to wait. I believe if 4 person continuously work just for route fixing then it shouldn’t take that much time as it is taking now. We don’t know what is going on inside? We understand 5-11 May is not a good weather but till now all route fixing ropes and oxygen should be in south col which is not yet clear. Expedition Operators Association Nepal (EOA) talks lot in Kathmandu but no any investigation on mountain so the reason there is no any proper management and delay in Rope fixing to Summit as a result we are missing the good days to Summit. Next year, We will take Rope fixing responsibility and see how long it takes in reality.

Mingma is a young, talented individual. I hope he finds a way to work with the other teams.

Summit Risks

Over on Cho Oyu, Adrian Ballinger who prides himself, and heavily markets his Alpenglow Rapid Ascents programs, in attempting peaks in as short of a period as possible set himself, and his members, an aggressive schedule this year by climbing Cho Oyu, then Everest within days. Today, he is pushing on Cho Oyu in highly questionable weather as high winds are forecast to hit anytime now. He posted:

The Cho+Everest Team made it to Camp 1 on Cho Oyu and they are planning their summit push around difficult weather (And by difficult, we’re talking -45°C windchill!). Sometimes mountains are climbed with perfect forecasts and the outcome almost guaranteed. Sometimes you just keep moving up until something tells you to stop. This summit push is the second type. Wish us luck

I do wish him luck and patience as the season moves on.

Lhotse Face 2008

Winds Won’t Stop Them

It’s always a difficult decision of just how much risks to take on the acclimatization phase. If you wait too long, you might miss an early summit window and get caught in the crowds towards the end of the season. If you push too hard in harsh conditions, team members might get sick, injured or simply run out of gas fighting the conditions and not have anything left in the tank for the summit push. Reports are coming in that it is fairly warm this year and I’ve received comments that the condition of Icefall feels more like late May, about three weeks early. With this in mind, teams are pushing their plans and hoping that the strong winds will not materialize as forecasted.

Adventure Consultants and the AAI team both know about the weather and moved up to Camp 2 anyway. AAI noting: ” Tomorrow will be a rest day as we prepare to head up to Camp 3 to touch and come back down to Camp 2 and finish our second rotation on the mountain. It is supposed to be windy the next several days but good preparation for our summit attempt in a couple weeks.

Unlike last year, both side seems to getting similar weather. Dave O’brien with Summit Climb noted the wind at the North Col: “Hi this is David O’Brien, we’re up at the North Col at 7000m in our tents having had plentiful freeze dried dinners and some thick chicken soup. Hopefully the wind will die down tonight or it’ll be tent flappy dreams all around..”

“Normal” Avalanche at EBC

Dream Wanderlust posted a nice video of an avalanche off the Lo Lha pass above Everest Base Camp on the Nepal side that captured a lot of cameras today. I don’t like to dismiss these events, especially after the 2015 event that took many lives at EBC, but this particular area is quite well known for avalanches and often sprays base camp with a puff of wind and snow. This one had no impact on EBC.

Attrition

I’ve been talking about how this time in the Everest season we see people dropout for various reasons. UK celebrity, Victoria Pendleton was on Everest with UK adventure celeb, Ben Fogle, both guided by Kenton Cool. They were on an aggressive schedule hoping to summit in a short timeframe. There have been several reports by other climbers seeing her in stress in the Western Cwm then she apparently developed breathing problems at C2 and went on oxygen. She posted on Instagram:

Unfortunately after much deliberation I have decided not to continue my endeavour to summit Mount Everest. The weather conditions have offered the possibility of an early summit bid, as a consequence I have been unable to adhere to the prescribed rotation program and keep pace with the team without causing concern regarding my health at the higher camps, due to my lack of adaptation to the extreme altitude.

I am incredibly disappointed not to complete the challenge and  frustrated as I feel in great physical condition and was moving swiftly and efficiently through the icefall and across the glacier, at no point did I feel this was a weakness in the challenge. Whilst we were working and moving I was really positive and comfortable. Unfortunately when we were recovering in camp in the afternoon, relaxing with a resting heart rate with a less active breathing pattern, I started to feel quite unwell and felt my body was going into shut down and the oxygen saturation of my blood was very low. So much so that I required a light flow of oxygen that continued throughout the night.

My condition caused much concern to Kenton and distressed the team. Kenton felt it was perhaps more sensible for me not to continue, for the sake of my health and wellbeing. I took his advice and called an end to my summit bid.

Daniel Wallace with Henry Todd’s team noted that “On the night of 2nd a bug swept through our camp. Three people were struck down. Mixture of vomiting and diarrhea.” I have heard of several camps being hit like this this year. Makes me wonder if the water around base camp is too polluted. As always, the best teams will double boil their washing, drinking and cooking water. Last year it was the flu bug – it’s always something at EBC!

The Docs at EverestER gave a nice update the other day on all the woes at EBC on the South side:

Happy May Day! We’ve been on the glacier for nearly a month now – here’s your update of what we’ve been up to. So far we’ve had 210 patient visits, ~ 90% male, the majority of our patients are Nepali, many from the US, and the rest representing the international makeup of base camp. The types of issues we’ve treated? 57 respiratory infections, 30 high altitude cough, 20 throat/tonsil infections, 10 pneumonia, 20 gastroenteritis, 20 sprains/strains/bone/joint problems. (No further frostbite since week 2! Prevention works!) 1 case of high altitude cerebral edema and a few cases of acute mountain sickness in people who have ascended too quickly. …Which reminds us to mention … we have yet to see a good outcome when a trekker who is too weak to walk up the hill hires a horse to ride. Sometimes people are so intent on reaching their goal to get up to base camp that they ignore their bodies signs that it’s not wise to ascend and ride a horse up. Over the years we’ve seen disastrous consequences for folks who ignore the golden rule for altitude — when unwell at altitude, DO NOT ASCEND. That’s our public service announcement for the day

Why They do It!

Michael Lutz posted a short but well done video of going to the North Col plus said, “We had some more or less exhausting 3 days at ABC. Due to bad weather, the Chinese mountain association hasn’t been able to already fix the ropes along the route. So we were not allowed to go to North col (yes, they are very strict about this). Instead we did some smaller tours and ice climbing practicing.” The ropes are now in and teams are staying at the Col. In fact the ropes are to 8300 meters, camp 3+.

Wind Watch

Fore the next few days, or even a week, it appears that the Jet Stream will move right on top of Everest – not unusual in early May and right on track with what meteorologist Chris Tomer forecasted last week. This appears to be widespread impacting the 8000ers from Cho Oyu in Tibet to Dhaulagiri to Kanchenjunga – all of these locations are reporting big winds that are stalling their progress. David Liaño on Kanchenjunga said “After a lot of snow, the jet stream is moving to the Kanchenjunga region. Sometimes the biggest challenge is to remain patient.” And over on Makalu, Warner Rojas added he was delaying his summit push and going to “the summit between 15 and 22 May.” On Dhaulagiri, Carlos Soria,  tweeted: “Yesterday it was snowing all day. Today it remains clear, but with strong wind in height. The base camp of the IFEMA-Carlos Soria Dhaulagiri 2018 Expedition is covered with snow.”

So, here we have it: early May, ropes not to the summit, weather moving in, climbers quitting, teams waiting, teams climbing. In other words, everything is normal on Everest!
Climb On!
Alan
memories are Everything

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