We may finally see how climate change has impacted climbing Mt. Everest: melting seracs threatening climbers, and helicopters used to bypass the icefall.
Big Picture
First, let’s clarify that the Icefeall is not blocked and is passable. The issue is a large, unstable hanging serac that, if it fell onto the Icefall with climbers there, dozens could be killed, making it much worse than the 16 taken in a similar event in 2014. There are conflicting reports about a route to Camp 1. But others say it’s still too dangerous because of rockfall, and the ice serac in question remains.
There are 410 Everest permits issued, so with 1.5 Sherpas per permit and 0.2 cooks, there are around 1,200 people at EBC, by my estimation. I’ve seen other reports with three times that many.
In or Not?
Today, three Sherpas from @imaginenepal, along with one from Elite Exped and one from Altipro, together with Polish pioneer Mr. Barteek Ziemski, climbed over the icefall blockage and fixed some ladders and ropes toward Camp 1. They had to turn back just a few hundred meters from Camp 1 due to a whiteout, but the route to Camp 1 is almost complete. They found the route far safer than it is being made out to be. All climbers who have been above the ice blockage think the route is safe. We believe Mother Qomolangma has shown us a path to make a safe climb.

“The joint team observed that there was no option to find any alternative safe route in the treacherous section until the hanging serac collapses,” Lakpa said, adding that the joint team of the Sagarmatha Pollution Control Committee and expedition operators was returning to base camp from the icefall section.
Tshering Tenzing Sherpa, base camp manager at SPCC, also confirmed that the serac has further widened, obstructing the proposed route to Camp I. “Earlier, the gap was some 3 feet, but it was found to be some 8 feet today,” he said, hoping that it would collapse in a few days.
Climbing the Seven Summits posted:
A team of more than 20 Sherpa Icefall Doctors, the Expedition Operators Association Nepal (EOA-Nepal), and other climbing teams, including CTSS, went up to assess the route and explore options. They all turned back, agreeing that the route above was still too dangerous.
Another smaller independent team did make it above this section, but it remains to be seen whether their route is reasonable for sending hundreds of climbers through. The Icefall Doctors will head back up tomorrow to assess this route and keep an eye on the condition of the seracs.
How Many Ladders and When?
History shows that the Docs usually get the route set between April 2nd and 16th:
| Icefall In | # Ladders | |
| 2009 | April 14 | 17 |
| 2010 | April 16 | ~24 |
| 2011 | April 11 | ~27 |
| 2012 | April 4 | ~25 |
| 2013 | April 5 | ~28 |
| 2014 | April 5 | ~24 |
| 2015 | April 4 | 22 |
| 2016 | April 9 | 23 |
| 2017 | April 2 | 21 |
| 2018 | April 4 | 20 |
| 2019 | April 5 | 20 |
| 2020 | Closed | Closed |
| 2021 | April 3 | ~10 |
| 2022 | April 7 | ~10 |
| 2023 | April 5 | ~7 |
| 2024 | April 16 | ~5 |
| 2025 | April 10 | ~21 |
| 2026 | ? | ? |
Helicopters to Camp 2
The route from Base Camp to Camp II is delayed due to a serac blocking it. A total of 10 helicopters will ferry equipment — including ropes, oxygen cylinders and food — directly to Camp II to expedite the rope fixing task. Under normal regulations, flights above Everest Base Camp are restricted to search-and-rescue operations.
This may become the new normal. Note that no foreigners or support climbers are allowed to fly over the Icefall, except for urgent medical emergencies.
Patience and Strategy
While the clock continues to run towards the inevitable monsoon arrival around June 1, the decisions teams will make will vary. You will see many teams, primarily the local Nepali/Sherpa-owned and run ones, follow the rope fixers to the summit, so expect massive crowds around mid-May.
On the other hand, most western/foreign operators have maintained their style for many years, waiting for the crowds to calm, then going as late in the season as possible. That would suggest those teams summit between May 22 and 26. Of course, all of this depends on: 1) can a route be put in at all, 2) is there enough time to stock camps and acclimate, and 3) the most important caveat—the weather.
Other 8000ers – Summits
Next Week
Nepal Permit Update
As of April 27, 2026, Nepal has issued 996 climbing permits to 1165 teams across 29 peaks. Everest climbers are from 55 countries. China has the most climbers at 98, followed by the U.S. at 57, India at 46 and the UK at 29. This is the current tally for the 8000ers. The Ministry of Tourism is not reporting as readably as in prior years, thus some banks.
| 8000er | Teams | Male Clients | Female Clients | Total |
| Annapurna I | 4 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
| Dhaulagiri | 4 | 18 | 12 | 30 |
| Everest | 42 | 327 | 98 | 425 |
| Kanchenjunga | 3 | 22 | 12 | 34 |
| Lhotse | 9 | 78 | 33 | 111 |
| Makalu | 9 | 44 | 17 | 61 |
| Manaslu | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| TOTALS | 72 | 510 | 180 | 690 |
Here’s to a safe season for everyone on all the peaks.
Climb On!
Alan
Memories are Everything
The Podcast on alanarnette.com
Here’s the Podcast of the Weekend Update
You can listen to #everest2026 podcasts on Spotify, Apple, Breaker, Pocket Casts, Anchor, and more. Just search for “alan arnette” on your favorite podcast platform.
Previous Everest 2026 Season Coverage Posts
- Everest 2026: April 27 Weekend Update – Icefall Route In?
- Everest 2026: April 19 Weekend Update – 8000er Summits
- Everest 2026: April 12 Weekend Update – The Khumbu is Alive!
- Everest 2026: Are Everest Climbers Being Poisoned?
- Everest 2026: Climber Rescue Alert
- Everest 2026: Climbers to Watch this Season
- Everest 2026: North Side Closed, New Rules in Effect: Everest 2026 Season Update
- Everest 2026: Icefall Doctors Launched
- Everest 2026: Rumor Fire Season
- Welcome to Everest 2026 Coverage – An overview of what to expect during the Spring 2026 climbing season
Background
- Everest by the Numbers: 2026 Edition – A deep dive into Everest statistics as compiled by the Himalayan Database
- Comparing the Routes of Everest: 2026 Edition – A detailed look at Everest’s routes, commercial, standard, and non-standard
- How Much Does it Cost to Climb Everest: 2026 Edition – My annual analysis of Everest climbing costs, from solo and unsupported to fully guided





One thought on “Everest 2026: April 27 Weekend Update – Icefall Route In?”
Thanks Alan for the updates.