Manaslu Over for Most—Finally!
It’s over on Manaslu. Even the rope-fixers are bailing as the typhoon is about to make landfall, bringing, perhaps, feet of snow to the higher elevations across the Himalaya. The Nepali weather experts are warning of potential flooding in Kathmandu and other areas.
I checked in with two meteorologists. Michael Fagin of Everest Weather told me, “The Joint Typhoon Warning Center states, “FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE for INVEST 95B. If this cyclone forms, it will track close to major climbing areas like Manaslu and Annapurna. Thus, starting this Thursday through at least Saturday, some models indicate 10 inches (25 cm) of snow daily for the major peaks. Some models have much higher totals.” And Chris Tomer of Tomer Weather Systems added on climbers’ decisions: “… You’d think my 2.5 meters of snow forecast would be enough.”
The Joint Typhoon Center has issued a formal warning of what has been suspected for over a week:
Environmental analysis indicates a favorable area for development with low vertical wind shear (10-15 kts), moderate equatorward outflow aloft, warm sea surface temperatures (29-30c), and robust amounts of moisture within the area. global deterministic and ensemble models are in agreement of gradual development within the next 24-36 hours while slowly drifting towards the coast of eastern India.
There have been four deaths on Manaslu, two from an avalanche when the climbers chose to stay while the rest of their team retreated to base camp. Nepal issued a record 493 permits; thus, with support, there were over 1,000 people on the peak—about the same as Everest this past Spring. Only the rope team has summited this season.
Most Teams Accept Reality
Image Nepal posted this:
Climbers are descending from Camp 3. For most of the teams, the expedition ends here, while some teams still want to wait for another weather window. However, given the amount of snow the weather reports are showing, there appears to be no hope for this year.
The largest operator, Seven Summits Treks, has officially ended their season citing the weather, as did AltiPro Adventure, Expeditions High Mountain Treks, 8K Expeditions, Elite Exped, Asian Trekking, Pioneer Adventure and Chatour Treks.
Alpine Ascents International, AAI, is also leaving:
We have decided to leave the mountain and are heading back to Kathmandu. Unfortunately, with a lot of snow on the way, it doesn’t seem like we would have the ability to climb safely higher on the mountain. It’s been a great expedition with a great team. We are flying back to Kathmandu this morning and will be returning home safe with great memories. Thanks for following along on our expedition!
Russian Roulette?
Snow continued to fall overnight at Manaslu Base Camp, even though the forecast hadn’t predicted it. The morning was gloomy and bleak. All the expeditions are facing a dilemma. The forecast shows the weather deteriorating for a full week starting September 24th, with a major cyclone moving in from the Bay of Bengal. It’s a choice between going now or waiting until the end of September… Alexander Abramov: …nevertheless, our team has decided to head up… All in all, 17 Sherpas and 17 expedition members from the 7 Summits Club Manaslu team are beginning their summit push. First to Camp 1, then to Camp 2 tomorrow. From there, we’ll move—using oxygen—to Camp 4, with the summit attempt scheduled for September 23rd. Our alternative plan would involve sitting in Base Camp for a week waiting for the weather, then waiting another three days for the avalanche risk to subside. That would push us to October 1st, and who knows what the situation will be then? So, wish us luck! We’re filling our thermoses and heading up… We’ll keep moving and see how things go.
And the next day, September 21:
Yesterday, September 20, all 17 expedition members and 17 Sherpas from the 7 Summits Club “Manaslu-26” team left Base Camp and climbed to Camp 1. Good weather conditions have now set in. According to the plan, the entire expedition will ascend to Camp 2 today. Tomorrow, the team moves to Camp 4, and the summit push is scheduled for the day after tomorrow.
No word from them today.
Wait and See?
A few teams have retreated to the local village of Samaguan, or even Kathmandu, saying they will wait out the storm and reassess conditions. However, with this much snow, the fixed ropes will be buried and have to be reset (who pays for that?), and it will take days, perhaps even two weeks, for the new snow to bond safely to the base—and that assumes no new snow as we move closer to winter.
Makalu
Dhaulagiri
Shishapangma & Cho Oyu
No climbers are scheduled to climb the 8000ers within Tibet, since China closed Tibet to foreign climbers.
Let’s hope wise decisions are made, and everyone gets to safety now.
Climb On!
Memories are Everything
Alan
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A surge of debilitating fatigue overtook me. My shoulders drooped. I stared at my yellow boots, crushed by disappointment. I had trained hard for K2 and tried to anticipate every scenario, but now I was failing, and there was nothing I could do.
Closing my eyes, I was powerless, hopeless, and ready to surrender to the mountain. Everything I wanted—the summit, a safe return, my vow to my mother—was slipping away.
My ice axe dangled from my harness as my grip was weak.
Staring at the small yellowish spot illuminated by my headlamp on the snow, it was over, and, oddly, I didn’t care.
It was 12:30 a.m. on July 27, 2014—my fifty-eighth birthday.
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One Response
Thank you Mr. Alan! I’m hoping Ryan and Justin are making a wise decision! Prayers for all who are choosing to stay!