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Climbing the World to End Alzheimer's
May 192021
South Col

Between cyclones, an ever-shortening weather window, rising COVID rates, and now the Icefall Doc saying the route will be closed on Saturday, May 29, what are the chances of seeing summits? Excellent, I’d say. Let’s break it down.

Potential Summit Schedule

Some teams are already at Camp 2, with estimates as high as 200 people (members and Sherpas) but I think probably less. A few are already at Camp 3 and perhaps one or two at the South Col. There are confirmed reports of tents being blown away at the Col, so teams will have to improvise. Given today is already May 20 in Nepal, here’s a potential schedule. I assume worse case with the second cyclone arriving around May 26. If it veers away, which some forecast has it behaving, it opens up more time to spread out the summit attempts:

  • May 19: Teams at EBC/C1/2/3
  • 20: Teams at C1/2/3/SC
  • 21: Teams at C2/3/SC
  • 22: Teams at C3/SC, Summits
  • 23: Summits
  • 24: Summits
  • 25: Back to C2
  • 26: Cyclone #2?
  • 27: Cyclone #2?
  • 28: All high camps cleared
  • 29: Icefall route closed

Overall, I estimate between 250 and 300 total people left to summit throughout this peroid. See my location table for team locations.

I expect these teams to head up now: Climbing the Seven Summits (partial), IMG (partial), Madison Mountaineering, Mountain Professionals, Summit Climb, 7 Summits ClubPioneer Adventure,.

And for the last major wave of the season around May 27/28: Alpine Ascents Int., Altitude Junkies, Asian Trekking, Elite Expeditions, Mountain Trip, Climbalaya, Satori Adventures, Himalaya Ascent, Himalaya Expedition.

As usual, I’ll closely follow the summit wave and report frequently on their progress. Best of luck to all.

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