K2 2025 Coverage: Risk Taking Case Study – Update 1

UPDATE 1 August 11, 2025 – There were 27 reported K2 summits by Imagine Nepal Team and Prakash Sherpa’s Climber Alpinist Expeditions (CAE). Safe descents have not been confirmed.

Imagine Nepal posted details:

The Imagine Nepal K2 expedition, led by Mingma G himself, after leaving Base Camp on August 5, finally reached the summit. Below is the K2 summiters list from Imagine Nepal:

1. Mingma G ()

2. Jangbu Sherpa ()

3. Pema Chhiri Sherpa ()

4. Aangdu Sherpa ()

5. Kami Sherpa ()

6. Lakpa Sherpa ()

7. Lakpa Tamang ()

8. Lhakpa Nuru Sherpa ()

9. Sohail Sakhi ()

10. Mr Liu Mihe ()

11. Mr. Dilixiati Ailikuti ()

12. ⁠12. Li Jiang ()

13. Ms. Guan Jing ()

14. Ms. Hu Yinghong ()

15. Ms. Maria Alexandra Danila ()

ℎℎ:

Mingma G (Nepal): Completed his sixth successful summit of Mount K2.

Maria Alexandra Danila (Romania): Became the first Romanian [female] to reach the summit of the world’s second-highest peak.

Mr. Dilixiati Ailikuti (China): Set the record as the youngest person to climb Mount K2. [ed note: age not announced or verified]

Jangbu Sherpa and Sohail Sakhi: Successfully climbed Mount K2 without the use of oxygen tanks.

With teams still hoping to summit, popular American climber Ryan Mitchell, Phurba Sherpa, Terray Sylvester, ⁠Madison Mountaineering⁠ lead guide, and several other Sherpas ended their expedition after climbing to Camp 1. Terray felt the rockfall was too dangerous to continue despite several teams already higher on the mountain, hoping to summit on August 11.

Only a few teams remain on the mountain, each with a few climbers, including a few independent ones foregoing supplemental oxygen and HAP/Sherpa support, like Czech climber ⁠Jan Polacek⁠, ⁠Slovak Lenka Polackova⁠, and Pakistani ⁠Sohail Sakhi⁠. Charles Page⁠ , a Canadian climber from Quebec, guided by Vinajak Malla, was last reported at 7661 m/25,134 feet, higher than the elevation of traditional Camp 4 of 25,080’/7600m as of August 11, 2:00 a.m. local time per his ⁠Inreach⁠.

Regardless of classification, they must work together to set the ropes, break the trail, and reach the summit. Then, they must descend, which might be one of the riskiest in recent history. Remaining teams include Seven Summits Treks, Imagine Nepal, and Elete Expeditions. As of yesterday, the fixed ropes are 200 meters above Camp 3, around 7400 meters or 24,300 feet. With Page’s report, they are obviously higher now as they are on their summit push. Teams expect to summit on Monday, August 11.

Risk Management

2025 has become another year to study risk-taking in the mountains. We have decades of experience demonstrating both ends of the risk management spectrum. Using history as a guide, let’s review some high-profile risk management cases. Some quotes were edited for clarity and brevity, but the intent was not modified. My goal with this piece is to showcase examples of risk management without judgement, that is left to you, the reader.

K2–2025: Only A Few Remain

Ryan, texted me from Base Camp, on August 10:

Went to C1, but Terray called it too dangerous. It was super sketchy – lots of rocks. There’s a 90% chance of tragedy when all teams come down. Moving down before dawn now. My head nearly got taken off last night. 

Another person who felt the risk were too high was Chilean climber, Janice Rot who posted an emotion goodbye on IG:

Female mountain
You are so much more than “Wild Mountain”
You are untamable, unpredictable, dangerous, and absolutely beautiful
And still, I can only say thank you

For teaching me that fear doesn’t always paralyze
Which can also push you, propel you, and become your greatest ally
Thank you for letting me step on your glaciers, climb your walls, breathe your height
But above all, for letting me go back home, where my family waits for me with a warm hug
Because there is no summit more valuable than that

This year, K2 offered nothing safe
One person passed away
My string was in an avalanche
And even though today is fine, I know how close we were to never hugging again
Avalanches were daily
The ice, water falls

The mountain spoke
A few days ago we walked to the beginning of the route,
Rocks fell like bullets, passing by my head
The sign I was asking God for so much
This decision was hard to make,
But there’s one ethical line we’ll never cross: putting ourselves at risk and involving others

We made the decision to turn around
Because there are decisions that are made with a burning heart, but a cold mind
Sometimes the greatest act of courage is knowing how to say: this far.
Even if your heart says otherwise

I watched people play everything to rescue others
I saw death up close
And I wept, from the soul, knowing that this mountain is also taken to its own, even when one does all right

It hurts that I didn’t get higher, but I’m not leaving empty handed
I carry wounds, lessons and an intact certainty:
still love this even when it hurts

Just mountains… and who does not know how to suffer, will never be able to understand it ️

To climbers, friends and Sherpas who stayed to try I wish you the best
May the mountain receive you with compassion.
And they all come back. Always

I owe you, K2
And yes… we will see each other again

Special thanks to:
• To sherpas and their work on the fixed ropes, that invisible and brave work that allows many of us to dream of these mountains, even when we do not climb with them as guides or carriers
• To the cleaning team that removed garbage at Broad Peak campsites and still in K2

Everest-2012: Expedition Canceled 

Perhaps one of the most famous risk management cases occurred in 2012, when Russell Brice, then owner of Himalayan Experience, canceled his entire Everest season on May 7, citing hanging ice on Everest’s West Shoulder. His guide, Phurba Tashi, told Russ he was fearful it might come crashing down at any moment. Russ, not willing to gamble with his staff or customers’ lives, made the difficult decision. Note that in these situations, there is no refund, but perhaps a discount on a future expedition. 

Other teams stayed, and the ice never released that year, so did Russ make the correct decision? After he left, there were 413 summits on the Nepal side with eight deaths, none from falling ice.  Two years later, on April 18, 2014, the ice did release, killing sixteen Sherpas in the Khumbu Icefall, while only four peole summited from the Nepal side. So, while Russ may have been cautious, he was correct.

As I wrote in the Everest 2012 season summary:

A Big Decision

Rumors spread over the weekend of May 5, 2012, that the well-known Everest guide, Russell Brice, was pulling his entire team off the mountain. Gaining fame through the television series “Everest: Beyond the Limits,” Brice’s public image was of a tough-minded individual who demanded and received his way.

His critics loved blaming him for Everest’s problems, while his supporters remained loyal. He had guided climbers to the summit from North and South for over a decade without losing a member, but had lost two Sherpas. This season, one of the early Sherpa deaths was one of his own.

With increased rockfalls and avalanches, Brice consulted his Sherpa Sirdar, Phurba Tashi, a man of great experience and respect on Everest. The Sherpa told Brice, “This is just too dangerous for me and my Sherpas.” Brice faced a difficult decision. He carefully studied the weather maps to see if the May snows would come. He also spoke with other expedition leaders to find out if the new route was significantly safer and whether a new path could be built in the Icefall.

He looked into the eyes of his members who had spent $55,000 and years of their lives to climb Everest with this legend. The members had trusted their lives to this man’s judgment. A team of British wounded soldiers who trained with Brice on Manaslu the previous year are now the focus of the UK as they prepare to climb the highest. All eyes were on the “Big Boss.”

He took his time, lost sleep, and then made one of the most significant decisions in the history of commercially guided Everest expeditions: cancel all the climbs—Everest, Lhotse, and Nuptse. Over 100 people, including climbers, Sherpas, cooks, and porters, would leave the mountain ASAP.

In the end, I believe Brice prioritized the safety of his Sherpas above everything else—current business, future expeditions, and his reputation. He simply pulled the plug. He told the world on May 7, “I am no longer prepared to take that risk. Of course, there is the possibility that many other teams will reach the summit this season. Still, we at Himalayan Experience are very concerned that a major accident could happen if we continue through the icefall.”

The members reacted predictably—some with outrage, others with understanding, all with extreme disappointment. There would be no refunds; most of the funds for an Everest expedition are spent long before climbers reach base camp. But Brice suggested that they would receive a discount if they wanted to return.

He confirmed his intent to keep running Himalayan Expeditions, and they left. The whispers started that Russ was too quick to make his decision, and the second-guessing began. 

Manaslu-2022: Avalanche Deaths

In 2022, an avalanche on Manaslu killed 34-year-old Anup Rai from Sankhuwasabha and Dawa Chhiring Sherpa. The avalanche happened on September 26, 2022, around 11:30 a.m., between Camps 3 and 4, where mainly Sherpas were transporting loads to support the large number of commercial clients later that week. 

Twelve other climbers were injured in the avalanche, all rescued, as were climbers reportedly trapped at Camp 4, unable or unskilled to descend without the fixed ropes which were buried in the snow by the avalanche.

One of the Sherpas managing the route, Yukta Gurung, told The Kathmandu Post that continuous snowfall triggered the avalanche. “It had snowed unceasingly for 15 days. The area was covered in at least five to six feet of snow; the piled-up snow ultimately gave way, triggering the avalanche.”

As a result of this avalanche risk and more snow in the forecast, all the Western operators ended their expeditions. The Nepali companies stayed and 76 made the summit.

I covered this case in a September 9, 2022, post:

Even with the avalanche and deaths, climbers, operators, guides, and government officials continue to post selfies and promote their climbs. There was even a video posted on social media of a body falling from the avi zone – inexcusable – and it has since been removed. However, notably, several western operators are ending their expeditions, Alpine Ascents said,

Hello everyone, it’s been a tough couple of days here on Manaslu. The weather has improved recently, but we’ve had an incredible amount of precipitation over the last couple of weeks at all levels of the mountain. Two avalanches between Camp 2 and Camp 4 are now affecting many.

The current forecast is sunny high on the mountain for several days, but with high winds loading with snow on the same slopes that have already been active with avalanches, more precipitation will come next week. I am not comfortable with any of our crew and team members climbing from Camp 3 to Camp 4 currently, and so I have made the tough decision to stop our summit bid. It’s never an easy decision, but I know it’s the right one to keep all our team safe.

We will clear the mountain of all our supplies in the next couple of days and make our way back to Kathmandu. Dan and Jim have been the best team members I could have asked for in this challenging climb, and I thank them for having the climbing experience to understand and fully accept the decision positively. That’s a mountaineer’s mindset. We can’t always reach the summit, but we can still have a positive and successful expedition. I will report as we safely return to Kathmandu in the next few days. Thanks for following along, Ben Jones

Madison Mountaineering has also chosen to leave:

Our Manaslu team is now safely off the mountain and heading home. We are grateful they were lucky to have missed the avalanches reported in recent days. All equipment has been carried down from our high camps, and the base camp crew is beginning to pack up.

Due to the lingering monsoon, heavy precipitation in western Nepal, continuous snowfall, and bad weather, the route conditions on Manaslu make it unsafe for us to proceed. Multiple avalanches have caused fatalities and injuries in recent days. We are saddened by these events, and our hearts go out to those who have lost a loved one.

The Madison Mountaineering team went into this expedition very excited to climb to the true summit of Manaslu. However, the mountain had other plans. We are thankful we can walk away and return to climb another day.

K2–2017: Summits with Retreats

In 2017, K2 had similar conditions as 2025 – rockfall, avalanche danger and uneven weather forecast. Climbers were all over K2 from base camp to at least Camp 3 on both the Abruzzi and the Česen routes. Large commercial teams of Madison and Himex have turned back, saying the risk is too much, but the Nepali lead teams, Destination Dreamers and Ascent Himalaya, manged to put 12 on ther summit.

From my July 25, 2017, post:

Austrian guide, Rupert Hauer, posted:

“It did not want to be. Due to the bad weather, we decided to descend to Camp 2. For us, the risk was simply too great. The K2 is risky enough even in good circumstances. We are currently far from good conditions. Therefore, the unanimous decision was to abort. LG Rupert and team.”

Mingma of Destination Dreamers said some of his team had already turned back:

K2 is all about the weather. We had 3 days of bad weather, though the weather report showed good weather. Some teams on K2 are closed already, and some in my team are going down too. But remaining, we still want to check jul 27.

One of those who turned back was American climber Hari Mix, who is now back in base camp after reaching Camp 3 on the Abruzzi. He was climbing without supplemental oxygen and made the courageous and wise decision to turn back:

“Going down. Despite improving physically, many weather and logistics issues are making this too much of a needle to thread for what I’m willing to take on. Then today: Back in base camp after high-stakes descent in a storm. Waiting to decide what to do next, but likely K2 is over for me this season.”

Over on the Česen route, Russell Brice’s Himex operation has ended its attempt. Adam Parore, one of the strongest climbers on K2 this year, posted:

“In the end, heavy overnight snow brought our expedition to an end. With 20cm falling from above C3, our chances to advance are nonexistent, and the danger of avalanche is suddenly very real and life-threatening. Despite splitting the Sherpas into three groups to descend, they were still avalanched above C2. When visibility improved mid-morning, it was clear that the upper snow slopes were loaded and the wind was actively ‘transferring’ from C2 and above.

The mountain was now not only difficult but dangerous as well. BC will be mourning for a few days as we adjust to the end of our dream, for at least this season. In the coming days, we will venture back to C2 to collect our gear and ‘clean the mountain.’ It will be a fitting way to say goodbye and to pay our respects to a ‘golden summer’ on K2—one final chance to climb her with courage, skill, and a touch of flair. True to form, I hope to lead it in a t-shirt.”

I later interviewed Mingma about his success of putting 12 people on the summit while others turned back:

AA: What were your thoughts when you were learned that both Himex and Furtenbach had ended their efforts this year?
MGS:  Russell Brice and I discussed and agreed to meet at camp4 on 25th July and fix route till above bottle neck on 26th July and summit on 27th July but because of too much wind and little snow, it couldn’t happen. We were connected from our camp3 and he mentioned that his team is coming down. As soon as he mentioned that, I made phone call to my teacher but he mentioned that weather is not changed and it will be good from 26July. After that, there was no reason to change my decision as we were very sure that there won’t be avalanche. Though it was little snowing, there was high wind blowing so we felt it would be in good condition once we get good weather.

Shishapangma: 2023- 4 Dead From Triggering Avalanche

A double tragedy occurred on Shishapangma on October 7, 2023, when two females, racing to be the first American female to complete all fourteen of the 8000-meter peaks, died along with two Sherpas when they tried in deep, fresh snow and triggered an avalanche. The pairs climbed separately, but had the same fate. Other climbers waited for the snow to bond, thus avoiding the danger.

American Anna Gutu and Migmar Sherpa are confirmed dead. Reported missing are American, Gina Marie Rzucidlo and Tenjen Lama Sherpa. Lama was Kristin Harila’s partner in summiting all the 8000ers in ninety-two days earlier this year. They were with Nepali guides, Gutu’s and Rzucidlo’s teams, climbing separately, guided by Elite Exped and Climbalaya, respectively.

Explorer’s Web noted the danger from the first-hand accounts from climbers there:

Italians Mario Vielmo and Sebastiano Valentini said everyone on the mountain that day knew that the upper section was risky because there had been a large avalanche the previous day. Vielmo and Valentini were in Camp 1 from the afternoon of Oct. 5 to Oct. 7. They saw conditions evolve into a textbook avalanche. Fresh snow falling on the south side was blown to the north, creating dangerous wind slabs.

“There was snow falling at altitude from Oct. 4 to Oct. 5,” they explained. “It was warm in Base Camp, so the snow didn’t last, but we estimate there was about half a meter at Camp 4 and above. On the morning of Oct. 7, it was extremely cold and windy on the mountain’s upper slopes. Wind, fresh snow, and cold…made a recipe for avalanche disaster.”

Climb On!
Alan
Memories are Everything

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