Mountaineering is full of triumph and tragedy. Losing a spouse on a mountain is horrific. There are doubts about how they died, if it could have been prevented, whether enough was done to save them, and the ultimate question, what to do with the body if anything. Now we have a specific request from a K2 Window for climbers this year.
It’s been a dramatic week in the Pakistani mountains. We saw summits, climbers in trouble, summits on a couple of 8000ers, and tragically two deaths. The weather is currently keeping the K2 teams at base camp but look for a rush starting later this next week—all in all, a normal season thus far, despite the record number of climbers.
Big Picture – Will 2022 K2 be like Everest 2019?
As I’ve mentioned multiple times, Pakistan has taken a page out of Nepal’s tourism book and issued permits to anyone and everyone this season. Some reports say 1,400, others closer to 1,000, but there are at least twice the number of tourists in the Northern Terorities than ever before.
Among these drivers of these crowds is pent-up demand from COVID and aggressive marketing from five Nepali operators: 8K Expeditions, Elite Expeditions, Imaging Nepal, Pioneer Adventures, and Seven Summits Treks. Combined, these account for 253 people – clients and support of mostly Sherpas from Nepal. However, the western operators are also cashing in with Madison Mountaineering and Furtenbach Adventures, accounting for 54 spots on the mountains.
Now, is this too many people spread across five 8000-meter peaks? The answer is it depends. Taking Everest as an example, these days, we see 300, 500, or even 700 people climbing from the Nepal side each spring season. This year, 2022 (click to read my analysis), I estimate 325 clients supported by 500 Sherpas were on the Nepal side and 640 summited Everest with no serious crowding issues. These are huge mountains that can accommodate lots of people – spread out.
The problem occurs when there are only a few suitable weather days to summit, i.e., winds under 30 mph. In 2019 (click to read my analysis,) we saw a nightmare situation with only three good days for 600 people; thus, long lines from the South Summit to the Summit resulted in 660 summits and nine deaths. Note that in my judgment, four of the eleven were ‘crowd-related’ deaths and an additional seven with ‘low-cost’ operators.
So just looking at K2 because it is the steepest of Pakastani’s 8000ers with the smallest spots for tents at the traditional camps, will the estimated 250 to 350 climbers experience an Everest 2019 scenario, especially at the traditional crowded spots like House’s Chimney, and the Bottleneck? Well, if K2 behaves like it traditionally has with short weather windows between strong wind and snow storms, yes. But, if teams can coordinate summit pushes and tent space, things might go smoother than expected. I’ve been told teams are communicating well and sharing tents thus far. If this turns out to be true, look for many leaders to jump in front of the summit parade and claim it as their own.
On a side note, it appears communication at least using the 4G mobile network, is back up and running; no word on the mysterious satellite disruptions. Also, the overall weather this season has been significantly warmer or should I say milder than usual, making for some sloshy climbing conditions. Cleary climate change is having an impact on the world’s mountains. The last time I checked, snow does not like warm temperatures and it brings out the rocks!
After the drama this week, climbing will slow down a bit due to weather, but we have summits on Broad Peak and teams progressing on K2. First-hand details on the Broad Peak death are now available. Also, I break down who is climbing on K2.
Big Picture – Weather Incoming
First, the weather forecast looks poor for the big four of K2, BP, GI & GII, so it may be quiet for the next few days or up to a week. As we leave the first week of July, progress continues as expected. Teams, actually Sherpas, are fixing the lines on the 8000ers and establishing the high camps. Thus far, the most progress has been on Broad Peak with three summits and Nanga Parbat with at least 26.
There are teams on both Gasherbrum I & II, with Denis Urubko said to be going for the GII summit any day now. He has permits for all five of the 8000ers but is taking it peak by peak. On K2, Sherpas continue to fix the line with reports saying they have it Camp 3 above the Black Pyramid. Most K2 summits occur between July 25 and August 1, but Seven Summits Treks suggest they will summit the second week of July. Probably a bit optimistic given the weather.
With respect to so many climbers across all the Karakorum peaks this summer, teams are sharing tents. In other words, one team may take their tents, establish a high camp, and let other teams use that spot and gear. This is probably the only way to manage this season, but we’ll see what happens when a window opens and everyone wants to jump onto it.
The two Pakistani climbers who were thought to be stranded apparently turned out to be tired, caught by the weather, descended on their power to Nanga Parbat Camp 1, where they were “rescued” by the Pakistani military. A video showed them smiling, laughing, in good spirits, and apparently in good health, expressing their appreciation to all involved.
The two deaths are now confirmed and identified. Meanwhile, poor weather hampers the rescue of the two stranded climbers on Nanga Parbat.
Fazal Ali and Shehroze Kashif were last reported trying to descend from Camp 3 on NP, this is a dangerous section where rappelling is required. A helicopter left Skardu at 9:00 am Wednesday, July 6, but low clouds prevented the searchers from seeing the mountain, much less the climbers. They abandoned the search and will try tomorrow, hopefully, if the weather clears. This will make these second nights the two Pakistanis have spent exposed high on the peak. Everest Chronicle has a good video shot from inside the helicopter showing the obscured mountainside.
Often called the ‘fog of climbing,’ news of deaths, rescues, and even summits come slowly and at times contradictory from the world’s highest peaks. Today, July 5, in Pakistan, we hear of two deaths, two climbers missing, and mixed messages about summits while confirmations of others.
Big Picture
With weather moving in, teams rushed to get a summit bid in on Broad Peak and Nanga Parbat. While there were certainly summits on NP, two Pakistanis lost their lives, one on BP and the other on Gasherbrum II. However, we also saw a tremendous performance by an Italian team on Nanga with a swift summit in only 20 hours.
Losing two climbers in one day on two different peaks is tragic. Even more, they are both Pakastani, a country striving to be more independent in the mountaineering world while building an infrastructure to support the hundreds of climbers attracted to their challenging peaks.
It’s too early to say if the record number of climbers in the Karakorum is playing a role in the dead and missing climbers, but to be sure, resources are spread thin.
Several strong Sherpas from various Nepali operators fixed the ropes on Nanga Parbat over the past few days thus facilitating a handful of clients to reach the summit. In total, there were 18 summits consisting of six members supported by 12 Sherpas, a 1:2 ratio of support. Pakistan issued 100 (member with support) permits this season; thus, look for more activity on Nanga.
Big Picture
The 2022 summer season is moving along with few, if any, issues reported by the teams. Most are talking about getting the fixed ropes put in by their super-strong Sherpas to the low-medium altitude camps while on Nanga, we are using a few summits. A shortage of porters and general support due to the record number of permits issued have delayed some teams from reaching their base camps.
As usual in Pakistan, the weather is variable with great, then tough days. Nothing out of the ordinary. Most of the commercial teams are taking the usual trade routes. A few independent climbers are taking less-traveled routes, but overall, this summer, climbing in Pakistan looks a lot like climbing in Nepal. Not a huge surprise since most of the teams are led by large Nepali operators using their proven formula of high oxygen rates with strong Sherpa support.
As for summits on the most-watched K2, don’t expect them for another couple of weeks at the earliest. Most K2 summits occur between July 25 and August 1.
We have the first summits of the 2022 Summer Karakorum seasons reported to me by Pemba Sherpa with 8K Expeditions. He says Norwegian Kristin Harila supported by Sherpas Dawa Ongju Sherpa and Pasadawa Sherpa topped out on Nanga Parbat This is a continuation of their project for all three to summit all of the 8000ers in record time. Next up are K2 and Broad Peak.
There is nice early progress on fixing the ropes throughout the Karakorum but don’t get too excited as the task gets harder as they move to the high camps.
Big Picture
In a carry-over from Nepal’s 8000er mash-up, it appears the multi-8000ers craze has spread to Pakistan’s five 8000ers. It used to be BP and K2, of which few if any ever achieved. Now it the Gasherbrums, BP, K2 and Nanga Parbat.
It will not surprise me if a few make it based on the new formula: use a team of strong Sheras to overpower the peak, fix the rope to the summit, establish and stock the high camps while the clients rest at BC or acclimatize to the lowest camps. Then leave BC, some already using oxygen, at high flow rates following the same, or fresh Sherpas to the summit. Once back, move quickly, albeit without helicopter support as in Nepal, and repeat the formula on the next 8000er.
Teams are steadily arriving at their respective base camps. Thus far its businesses usually with unsettled weather – hot days, followed by snow storms. The rope fixing will begin on K2 and Broad Peak in a day or so, followed quickly by the first rotations.
Climbing the World to End Alzheime's
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