By Alan Arnette13 min read

Everest 2025: Managing the Crowds for “Summit Weekend”

Lhotse Face Line 2003

The weather forecast calls for light winds any day now, allowing the rope team to continue fixing to the summit. As of May 6, they’ve got it to the South Col on the Nepal side and probably above 7900 meters on the Tibet side. This will open the mountain for scores of clients with one or more Sherpas in support. Look for a busy first wave of summits later this week. We get a first-hand report of the conditions from EBC to C3.

Big Picture

First, a report from Ryan Water, founder of Mountain Professionals out of Boulder, Colorado. His team is in Camp 2 on their rotation, and notes that the conditions are quite good:

May 5 and the Mountain Professionals team is on rest day here at C2. We will plan to tag C3 tomorrow and be down for completion of acclimatization. General thoughts this year: though there sounds like the permits are up to 440 plus, the mountain has a general feeling of calmness to me. BC is huge with Infrastructure but always calm when it comes to people about.
The BC to C1 route is the fastest I have seen in 17 years. Very few steep parts, very limited crossings etc. I see the biggest hazard as in the center a section with a pinnacle that looks ominous just next to a section that had collapsed prior to us coming through 2 days ago. Several groups around us seemed not to even be aware of this and simply standing below the hazard.
C1 to C2 – again the fastest and easiest I have ever seen it. Almost no rolls and no steep sections. The route was chosen way to climbers right out of C1 this year- something in the past was a always skeptical I think due to close proximity to the Nuptse slope.Another section of the route that seems favorable over recent years. C2 to C3. In general a more direct approach out of C2 with not much switch back. Our team took a leisurely pace today and took 2.5 hours from c2 to the base of the fixed ropes at the Lhotse Face.
A tricky start which is common to gain the face itself at the Bergschrund but pretty typical. Then from there the route is in nice shape with good steps up to the more icy rolls leading in to the lower tent sights at c3. Our team did this section again in 2.5 hours. Snowing today in camp two as the final teams roll into camp doing rotations but overall relaxed feeling persists. Forecast shows good pretty stable weather for the next week, rope fixers completed to South Col yesterday! Our team is heading down tomorrow to BC to rest for window!
Curious when the ropes reach the summit for the first summit of the season and first non-Sherpa summits? Here you go, since 2009 with green as the earliest and red the latest.First summit, ladders 2009-2024

Next Steps

The question is, how many people will be on their summit push this weekend? Many teams have completed their acclimatization programs and are ready. The lack of a fixed rope to the summit and high winds above Camp 3 have stalled everyone, frustrating some team leaders. Some forecasts have acceptable summit winds in the second half of May. If this pans out, there will be plenty of time for everyone to have their shot at the top. Thus, it becomes an opportunity for the team leaders to cooperate and coordinate their summit pushes.

Nepal issued around 450 permits, and each foreigner, aka client or member, has at least one Sherpa climbing with them. Some have two or more. Last year’s final statistics showed 787 summits on the Nepal side, broken down as 319 members and 468 Sherpas in support, yielding a ratio of 1:1.46. By the way, for members, 68% of those who climbed above base camp made the summit. On the Tibet side, there were 74 summits with 51 members and 23 in support, and 67% of those who climbed above base camp made the summit.

According to the Himalayan Database, the top reasons for ending a climb once above base camp are:

  • Exhaustion, frostbite, Weakness, or Lack of Motivation
  • Other Illnesses or Pain
  • Bad Weather (storms, high winds, etc.)

In a typical year, around 25% of the clients abandon their expedition. Some get hurt, others are bored, and some figure out they are in over their head and wisely return home, hoping, perhaps, to learn from this experience and return one day better prepared. If that holds for 2025, we’ll see around 340 members instead of 450, making the crowds more manageable.

One fly in the summit ointment is that Camp 4 at the South Col has not been established as of May 6th. By this time in a normal season, Sherpas have stocked it with ample supplies like tents, stoves, fuel, and oxygen. Some teams will skip this first wave until it’s established, while others will have the Sherpas do double work by supporting their client and carrying huge loads. This is an example of how Sherpas are so critical to climbing Everest for practically every client.

Who Summits First?

There are over 44 teams on Everest, ranging from two people to 100. Almost without exception, all depend on Sherpas to establish camps, including ferrying food, fuel, tents, and supplemental oxygen.

While you may read about someone climbing “self-supported,” in reality, they are supported by the Icefall Doctors to set ropes and ladders in the Khumbu Icefall or to Advanced Base Camp on the North. Also, they get support from the rope team, who set the safety line to the summit. They are supported if they clip into someone else’s rope or step on a ladder.

And some “independent” climbers depend on Sherpas to establish their camps, just like the commercial teams. This is not meant to criticize but to clarify and frame the problem. (Well, maybe a slight criticism of their transparency and acknowledgment of the support they use)

#1 Fix Route

This is the deal: the tradition is that the Sherpa rope-fixing team is the first to summit Everest. While someone can climb independently or without fixed ropes, it is rare. Perhaps we will see Kenton Cool do it this year. But even Kenton will use the ladders in the Khumbu Icefall, and he is fine with that. But that will be just him and perhaps his client and Sherpas, leaving 998 climbers to go!

#2 Acclimatize

Even though an average Everest expedition arrives at base camp in early April, all climbers must check off three items before they attempt to summit: wait for the ropes to be fixed, acclimatize by climbing to between 20,000 and 23,000 feet, and have a weather forecast of four to seven days with winds under 30 mph. All of this is true unless you are xenon-powered, then you fly to EBC and immediately go to Camp 2 and upwards.

#3 Good Weather

The weather forecast is the primary factor driving the crowds. If there are only a few good weather days, everyone elbows to get their spot in line. The normal range is 6 to 16 days, with an average of 11 since 2001. In 2019, the year most talked about for crowds, it went down to three. The best-case scenario for 2025 is for many good weather days to spread out the crowds. If it is like 2019, with three or even six, we can expect record deaths and frostbite while seeing record summits – a harsh scenario.

Climber line on Lhotse Face in 2012. Courtesy of Ralf Dujmovits
Climber line on Lhotse Face in 2012. Courtesy of Ralf Dujmovits

Total Support

The picture often used as Exhibit A in the trial of Everest’s overcrowding was from 2019, when a picture of a long line of people between the South Summit and the Summit went viral. Another is from 2012, when Ralf Dujmovits captured a long line of Sherpas ferrying gear to the South Col.

The fact is that those Sherpas were carrying a large amount of oxygen to the Col, plus extra food, tents and supplies for members. The trend is for members to use four lpm of oxygen, where it used to be only two lpm, and now many use six and eight lpm, making it easier for the members. Therein lies the problem with crowding – too many people with marginal skills requiring exorbitant support.

But I digress 🙂

Summit Strategies

More often than not, the summit push is a herd mentality based on rumors throughout the base camp about the forecast, sometimes based on false information planted by ill-intentioned teams. There will be 1,000 humans on Lhotse and Everest (South) flanks starting this weekend. If you are already there, what are your options? Here goes:

Get out Early

Once the ropes are fixed and there is a good weather forecast, teams must gamble on when to begin the first summit attempt. Going first in early to mid-May is cold, very cold. And if the forecast misses the winds by 20%, it can be horrible. If the humidity spikes or an unexpected snow squall moves in, it can be common for hoarfrost to coat climbers, making for a miserable summit experience. Once they get there, there is no view.

Western Cwm - Everest 2015

But this is the rub with this strategy: Many teams want to be “first,” so it can be crowded. There can easily be 100 to 200 climbers in that first window. To complicate matters, it seems the least experienced and sometimes slowest teams try to go early, creating a massive traffic jam. These teams refuse to step aside to let faster climbers pass; thus, a mass of humanity is paced by the mountain’s slowest and sometimes the least capable climber.

Despite Nepal’s claims of putting authorities at base camp in 2025, there is no “governing body” to control this, and calls for regulations have never been implemented. Guides will meet a few times during the season to try to coordinate, and some do, but many don’t cooperate, simply managing their summit push to their schedule without regard for anyone else.

Ok, so you have 300 people trying to be the first to summit in cold conditions at a snail’s pace. Not to despair; there is a solution to this. Hang on.

Go Late

This scenario calls for the team to be one of the last to go after everyone else has given it a go. In the notorious 2019 season, Mike Hamill’s Climbing the Seven Summits went on the last day of the season and had the mountain to themselves.  Dave Hahn, who once held the non-Sherpa summit record with fifteen, used this strategy year after year and was very successful. The advantages are that the weather is usually the warmest of the season, the boot track is kicked in, and the crowds are gone. You can move fast and easily. And there is a huge “but”…

Weather forecasting on Everest has improved, but all it takes is for a cyclone to develop in the Bay of Bengal, bringing snow and winds to Everest, or the monsoons to start early, or the Jet Stream to move on top of the summit, or a hundred other variables and without warning, the season comes to an early halt.

Even with a forecast of an early end, all of a sudden, that four-to-seven-day window needed to summit drops to two or four days, and you gamble with your life. If you push during a small window, you must go fast, often foregoing that extra night at altitude to rest. You may need extra oxygen that you don’t have, but most of all, you must be in almost perfect health. This is not a scenario for novice, slow, inexperienced climbers. You can easily die. This is the riskiest of all my options.

Goldilocks Timing

Each year, a few lucky teams go between the early and late teams when it is not too cold and not too hot (as if it ever is on Everest!), and the winds are low. In other words, perfect conditions. May 23rd is THE day when climbing from Tibet and Nepal with 12% of all 12,884 summits since 1953. But this doesn’t mean the weather was good. Let me repeat this – just because more people summit on the 23rd, does not mean the weather is always good that day each year.

As previously discussed, these teams chose to skip the early windows due to the crowds but didn’t want to wait too late and risk missing any windows altogether. So, knowing May 23rd has been the sweet spot for decades, many teams arbitrarily target this date.

However, many of these historical patterns are not as predictive as they once were with climate change. Anyway, long-time, very experienced guides will pore over custom weather forecasts and select a window based on their experience, advice from professional meteorologists, and input from long-time Everest Sherpas on mountain conditions. Many believe that a full moon marks an auspicious day perfect for summitting. By the way, that will be on May 12, 2025. You will rarely see a seasoned team go for the summit in bad weather, yet it occasionally happens.

Break into Small Sub-Teams and Go Fast and Nimble

This is the strategy I like the best, but it is the hardest to achieve. You play your own game. You go when your mind and body are fully prepared. You are well-rested, acclimatized, and have all your camps stocked, and the weather looks good.

In 2025, teams will have 100 members, 150 Sherpas for 250 total climbers! Some with even more. These large teams will break up into smaller teams of perhaps forty to seventy climbers in total, still a lot of people. This is an attempt not to “clog” the route.

But some use a technique where they literally climb nose to butt. The theory is that they move as a single pod in unison, gathering strength from the group. This technique is fine if they were alone on the mountain, but the problem is that it is almost always extremely slow and plodding, thus creating the bottlenecks we discussed earlier.

So the best way to deal with these clogs is to unclip from the fixed rope and pass them. Yes, you will assume the risk of slipping on ice or steep terrain and falling to your death, but you have to use common sense to determine where and in what conditions to make this move.

The key, however, is that you must be flexible enough to break away from your group. If your leader insists on you being a cog in the wheel, you are stuck. So, discuss this scenario with your team before you leave base camp.

In 2011, I was with IMG and climbed with Kami Sherpa and no Western guide. Even though IMG has large teams, they break them into sub-teams. In 2011, my team became very small for various reasons; thus, we had great flexibility. I credit the IMG leadership for their flexibility and the IMG Sherpas for their skills and experience.

Kami and I made the “pass the clog” move as we left the South Col on 20 May 2011. That night, forty to sixty people were standing in place on the Triangular Face at about 27,000 feet, just above the South Col or Camp 4. The weather was perfect, and the terrain was reasonable, not overly steep, when we made our move. We passed over fifty people in one push.

That single decision allowed us to be the third and fourth person to summit that day from the south side out of 150. We never waited during our entire summit push-up and back.

Choices

While I went thru several scenarios, often on Everest, your choices are limited due to your team leadership, mountain conditions, weather or your own skills.Alan Climbing the Khumbu Icefall in 2002

So what are your choices? Actually, there are several if you find all of this untenable.

First: climb in the Autumn when there is almost no one there. Yes, it takes stronger, faster, tougher, more experienced climbers, but…

Second: investigate different routes, like the West Ridge. Yes, it is harder and longer, your chances of summiting are less, and it takes more experienced climbers, but…

Third: climb on your own terms to go where and when you like. There are no rules that say you have to use the fixed ropes or ladders put in by the support teams. Yes, it would be more dangerous and require more skills and experience, but …

It is popular to complain about the crowds on Everest, more so by people who are not there, never have been and never will. For those that are there, complaining about the crowds is kind of like saying I don’t want to belong to any club that would have me as a member (thank you, Groucho Marx!).

In the end, we all have choices.

Climb On!
Alan
Memories are Everything

PS Thoughtful comments are welcome, but please not the old tired ones about climbers being idiots, closing the mountain or putting an escalator in. Counting on some thoughtful and constructive observations 🙂 Thanks

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8 thoughts on “Everest 2025: Managing the Crowds for “Summit Weekend””

  1. Alan,I read your posts every year and find your knowledge on Everest very interesting to me. I am not a climber but do wish I could make the Trek to BC someday. What mystifies me is how any of the outfitters west or east don’t have a better moral judgement on what they leave behind on Everest. I am not sure anyone has the right to take their equipment, food,O2 ect.to another country and throw it into a crevasse. You have submitted Everest, would it not be possible to require Outfitters,Guides to be responsible for bringing back at least some of what there clients use? Everest and Nepal must be a unforgettable experience.It appears it is heading to another landfill in a country that has limited funds!

    1. There are “rules” but they are rarely enforced so it’s up to each individual to leave no trace. Many foreign guides and a few local ones stress the importance but in the end, it’s a personal responsibility issue. Yes, summiting is a special experince, despite all the negativity you read.

  2. Amazing post as always Alan. I don’t like the xenon method personally and the sooner Nepal implement the 7000m rule the better, we need a climbing association similar to the Tibet side at EBC to enforce and validate new rules.

    1. Thanks Tom. I’m not a fan of the gas either, but I object in terms of making Everest more like a day trip than an expedition to be savored. I hope everyone comes out of this safe. As for the 7000m rule, I love it but want peaks outside Nepal counted, including ones like Aconcagua, Denali, and a few others.

  4. Every Himalayan and Karakorum climbing season, I pray for specific individuals that Alan’s blog brings to my attention. I pray first thing in the morning (East Coast time) and other times of day. I check updates from various blog coverages. I give love offerings to the climbing for a cause organizations. If anyone uses a GPS tracker, I pray in the middle of the night as I follow their ascent for a summit push. I grieve over deaths. My heart is fond toward the Sherpas. This is so intense, but it is my honor and privilege to lift these climbers up to the Lord and pray a hedge of protection around them, in the Name of Jesus, standing on the resurrection life power of the Word of God. May angels camp round about them at Camps 1, 2, 3, 4, in ascent and descent. I know many people of faith around the globe are praying, too. Prayer is powerful!

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