Category: K2

This has been a ‘lay-low’ week with storms hitting the higher elevations of Pakistan’s 8000ers. Yet, there were thwarted attempts. Many teams are finalizing preparations for their summit pushes beginning soon in what could be very short weather windows, but the predicted conflict with so many people has begun.

Big Picture – The Summit Rush

With this odd statement, “We are not ready for summit push but we will give our best as always.” teams are leaving base camp for their summit pushes at least a week, if not two, earlier than in previous seasons. The leaders must think the gamble is justified.

I’m estimating that around 125 people who had K2 permits are no longer going to the summit, and most have already given up. So that leaves 250-350 people left to attempt. I hear of serious disagreements among the teams led by egos pushing to go and some pushing to wait or just jostling for a slot that they feel is less crowded and gives their team a better chance.

As I said before, with so many people, it will take communication, cooperation, and comprise to avoid, or at least minimize, tragedy this season. Currently, it appears none of those three are in play.

It’s been a dramatic week in the Pakistani mountains. We saw summits, climbers in trouble, summits on a couple of 8000ers, and tragically two deaths. The weather is currently keeping the K2 teams at base camp but look for a rush starting later this next week—all in all, a normal season thus far, despite the record number of climbers.

Big Picture – Will 2022 K2 be like Everest 2019?

As I’ve mentioned multiple times, Pakistan has taken a page out of Nepal’s tourism book and issued permits to anyone and everyone this season. Some reports say 1,400, others closer to 1,000, but there are at least twice the number of tourists in the Northern Terorities than ever before.

Among these drivers of these crowds is pent-up demand from COVID and aggressive marketing from five Nepali operators: 8K Expeditions, Elite Expeditions, Imaging Nepal, Pioneer Adventures, and Seven Summits Treks. Combined, these account for 253 people – clients and support of mostly Sherpas from Nepal. However, the western operators are also cashing in with Madison Mountaineering and Furtenbach Adventures, accounting for 54 spots on the mountains.

Now, is this too many people spread across five 8000-meter peaks? The answer is it depends. Taking Everest as an example, these days, we see 300, 500, or even 700 people climbing from the Nepal side each spring season. This year, 2022 (click to read my analysis), I estimate 325 clients supported by 500 Sherpas were on the Nepal side and 640 summited Everest with no serious crowding issues. These are huge mountains that can accommodate lots of people – spread out.

The problem occurs when there are only a few suitable weather days to summit, i.e., winds under 30 mph. In 2019 (click to read my analysis,) we saw a nightmare situation with only three good days for 600 people; thus, long lines from the South Summit to the Summit resulted in 660 summits and nine deaths. Note that in my judgment, four of the eleven were ‘crowd-related’ deaths and an additional seven with ‘low-cost’ operators.

So just looking at K2 because it is the steepest of Pakastani’s 8000ers with the smallest spots for tents at the traditional camps, will the estimated 250 to 350 climbers experience an Everest 2019 scenario, especially at the traditional crowded spots like House’s Chimney, and the Bottleneck? Well, if K2 behaves like it traditionally has with short weather windows between strong wind and snow storms, yes. But, if teams can coordinate summit pushes and tent space, things might go smoother than expected. I’ve been told teams are communicating well and sharing tents thus far. If this turns out to be true, look for many leaders to jump in front of the summit parade and claim it as their own.

On a side note, it appears communication at least using the 4G mobile network, is back up and running; no word on the mysterious satellite disruptions. Also, the overall weather this season has been significantly warmer or should I say milder than usual, making for some sloshy climbing conditions. Cleary climate change is having an impact on the world’s mountains. The last time I checked, snow does not like warm temperatures and it brings out the rocks!