The week started well, but when the winds picked up, as forecasted, teams took risky chances that turned deadly. Now, with a better forecast, hundreds of climbers are positioned to summit over the next few days. Tibet-side teams are in place and looking at summit plans.

Each weekend during the season, I’ll post a “Weekend Update” summarizing the main stories from the past week and what to expect next.

Big Picture

There seems to be a sense of urgency from climbers on Everest, fearing the inconsistent winds will return and close the mountain for the season. Many are staged at Camp 2, playing a mental chess match with the other teams on when each team will move higher, all wanting to reduce the chance of a 2019 crowding debacle driven by a narrow weather window.

Chris Tomer of Tomer Weather Solutions sees good conditions over the next week.

A long duration Everest summit window appears likely 5/19-5/26, but there are important nuances each day. Why? The jet stream which normally blasts Everest will weaken and move away to the north. As this occurs, it opens the door for development in the Bay of Bengal. Anyone attempting a summit after 5/26 should monitor tropical development and increasing Monsoonal moisture.

In the first weather window, around 90 people summited. Ukrainian climber Valentyn Sypavin, 41, became the first foreigner to summit Everest this spring on May 11, a day after the rope team reached the top. May 12 was a big day for Everest summits starting with Kami Rita leading a large group from Seven Summits Treks that included seven foreigners supported by thirteen Sherpas or a client-to-support ratio of 1:1.8. On the same day, IMG put an unknown number on the summit. Imagine Nepal saw nine international climbers supported by ten Sherpa guides on top. 8K Expeditions put two on top. Climbing the Seven Summits had a good May 13 with eight clients led by two Western guides and supported by sixteen sherpas, making the client: support ratio 1:2.25. Also, on the 13th, Imagine Nepal reported that American Cranford Stoudemire with Nima Nuru Sherpa summited at 6:10 a.m. Then, on May 15, in very high winds, Michal Ryszard Wensierski and Purba Sherpa from Makalu Adventure summited at 7:25 a.m.

Lhotse has seen over 50 summits thus far.

Last Week

8k Expeditions recovered the bodies of their clients Usukhjargal Tsedendamba, 31, near the South Summit, around 8,550m and his climbing partner, Purevsuren Lkhagvajav, 53, near the Balcony at 8400 meters. The Mongolian climbers had left the South Col for the summit at 7:00 p.m. on May 12^th. They climbed without supplemental oxygen or Sherpa support in very high winds.

From previous year’s deaths, the Nepal Army, on a cleaning mission, recovered a body on Lhotse and another on Everest. They will be delivered to the Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital’s forensic lab in Kathmandu. The twelve-member cleaning team aims to retrieve five bodies and ten tons of trash from Everest.

Next Week

The high winds are expected to ease this week, with “light winds” in the forecast for the next ten days. However, most teams are targeting May 19-21, eager to close out the season. Masses are positioned at C2 and soon at Camp 3 and the South Col.; it appears that almost every team is targeting summits over the next few days, with a few exceptions.

On the Tibet side, Furtenbach Adventures is already at Advanced Base Camp, targeting the summit on May 28th. Alpenglow is also at ABC and will “take a few rest and skills days here and then push to North Col Camp for further acclimatization before descending back to ABC to wait for their weather window for the summit push.” Nepali operator Climbalaya is also there.

Lukas Furtenbach told me that the North Side has around 50 climbers, substantially less than forecasted earlier, as China did not allow foreigners into Tibet until May 7^th.

Other 800ers

Climbers from Elite Exped were allowed to retrieve the bodies of their client Anna Gutu, 33, and the Sherpa supporting her, Mingmar Sherpa, 27, from Shishapangma but not the other two killed in avalanches last autumn on October 7, 2023. Kristin Harila had planned to recover the body of her climbing partner, Tenjen Sherpa, aka Tenjen Lama Sherpa, but when China refused to allow her entry, she had no choice but to cancel her plan to search. The two set a 14x8000er record achievement all in three months and five days, easily surpassing all previous records. He and Gina Marie Rzucidlo died in a separate avalanche last October.

Nepal Permit Update

The Ministry of Tourism removed the permit data from its website, but other outlets note that there have been about 97 summits thus far, with 414 permits issued to foreigners. 414 foreign permits comprising 75 female and 339 male clients across 41 teams. This is the last 2024 tally for the 8000ers the MoT posted:

8000er	Teams	Male Clients	Female Clients	Total
Annapurna I	3	14	11	25
Cho Oyu	1	1	0	1
Dhaulagiri	2	20	8	28
Everest	37	320	70	390
Kanchenjunga	3	20	11	31
Lhotse	12	107	23	130
Makalu	4	40	17	57
Manaslu	1	2	0	2
TOTALS	62	522	140	662

Climb On!
Alan
Memories are Everything

While teams start to summit, many others remain at base camp, waiting their turn. It’s a stressful time.

Who Summits First?

There are over 40 teams on Everest, ranging from two people to 100. Almost without exception, all depend on Sherpas to establish camps, including ferrying food, fuel, tents, and supplemental oxygen.

While you may read about someone climbing “self-supported,” in reality, they are supported by the Icefall Doctors to set ropes and ladders in the Khumbu Icefall or to Advanced Base Camp on the North. Also, they get support from the rope team, who set the safety line to the summit. They are supported if they clip into someone else’s rope or step on a ladder.

Some “independent” climbers depend on Sherpas to establish their camps, just like the commercial teams. This is not meant to criticize but to clarify and frame the problem. (Well, maybe a slight criticism of their transparency and acknowledgment of the support they use.)

There are three steps before you can summit:

#1 Fix Route

Climber line on Lhotse Face in 2012. Courtesy of Ralf Dujmovits

This is the deal; the tradition is that the Sherpa rope-fixing team is the first to summit Everest. They did so on May 10 this year. While someone can climb independently or without fixed ropes, it is rare. No one summited this year before the rope team on either side.

#2 Acclimatize

Even though an average Everest expedition arrives at base camp in early April, all climbers must check off three items before they attempt to summit: wait for the ropes to be fixed, acclimatize by climbing to between 20,000 and 23,000 feet and have a weather forecast of four to seven days with winds under 30 mph. Most teams either spend a few nights at Camp 2 at 21,500′ and some will go to Camp 3 at 23,000 feet, but almost no one spends the night at Camp 3 since they begin using supplemental oxygen from Camp 2, not 3. The only exception is those climbing without supplemental oxygen; they will try to spend one night at 8000 meters at the South Col before making their summit bid. The Chinese now require all climbers to use supplemental oxygen.

#3 Good Weather

The weather forecast is the primary factor driving the crowds. If there are only a few good weather days, everyone elbows to get their spot in line. The normal range is 6 to 16 days, averaging 11 since 2001. In 2019, the year most talked about for crowds, it went down to three.

2024 has been mixed. Last weekend, around May 10, 11 and 12, the winds were under the top limit of 30 mph, which is the limit for most teams. About 90 people summited over those days. But then the winds returned, shutting down the mountain for the best teams. However, a few made efforts, and we turn back by gusts upwards of 70 mph per one climber. Two independent climbers from Mongolia pushed their no Os or support position and died on the Southeast Ridge between the Balcony and the South Summit. The latest forecast calls for ten days under 30 mph, opening the upper mountain to everyone. They should spread out, and crowing should be minimized, but …

Total Support

The picture often used as exhibit A in the trial of Everest’s overcrowding was from 2019, when a picture of a long line of people between the South Summit and Summit went viral. Another is from 2012 when Ralf Dujmovits captured a long line of Sherpas ferrying gear to the South Col.

The fact is that those Sherpas were carrying a large amount of oxygen to the Col, plus extra food, tents and supplies for members. The trend is for members to use four lpm of oxygen, where it used to be only two lpm, and now many use six and eight lpm, making it easier for the members. Therein lies the problem with crowding – too many people with marginal skills requiring exorbitant support.

But I digress 🙂

Summit Strategies

More often than not, the summit push is a herd mentality based on rumors throughout base camp of the forecast, sometimes based on false information planted by ill-intentioned teams. There will be 600 humans on Lhotse and Everest (South) flanks starting this weekend. If you are already there, what are your options? Here goes:

Get out Early

Once the ropes are fixed and there is a good weather forecast, teams must gamble on when to begin the first summit attempt. Going first in early to mid-May is cold, very cold. And if the forecast misses the winds by 20%, it can be horrible. If the humidity spikes or an unexpected snow squall moves in, hoarfrost can commonly coat climbers, making for a miserable summit experience. Once they get there, there is no view.

But this is the rub with this strategy: Many teams want to be “first,” so it can be crowded. There can easily be 100 to 200 climbers in that first window. To complicate matters, it seems the least experienced and sometimes slowest teams try to go early, creating a massive traffic jam. These teams refuse to step aside to let faster climbers pass; thus, the mountain’s slowest and sometimes least capable climber paces a mass of humanity.

Despite Nepal’s claims of putting authorities at base camp in 2024, there is no “governing body” to control this, and calls for regulations have never been implemented. Guides will meet a few times during the season to try to coordinate, and some do, but many don’t cooperate, simply managing their summit push to their schedule without regard for anyone else.

Ok, so you have 300 people trying to be the first to summit in cold conditions at a snail’s pace. Not to despair; there is a solution to this. Hang on.

Go Late

This scenario calls for the team to be one of the last to go after everyone else has given it a go. In the notorious 2019 season, Mike Hamill’s Climbing the Seven Summits went on the last day of the season and had the mountain to themselves. Dave Hahn, who once held the non-Sherpa summit record with fifteen, used this strategy year after year and was very successful. The advantages are that the weather is usually the warmest of the season, the boot track is kicked in, and the crowds are gone. You can move fast and easily. And there is a huge “but”…

Weather forecasting on Everest has improved, but all it takes is for a cyclone to develop in the Bay of Bengal, bringing snow and winds to Everest, or the monsoons to start early, or the Jet Stream to move on top of the summit, or a hundred other variables and without warning, the season comes to an early halt.

Even with a forecast of an early end, all of a sudden, that four to seven-day window needed to summit drops to two or four days, and you gamble with your life. If you push during a small window, you must go fast, often foregoing that extra night at altitude to rest. You may need extra oxygen that you don’t have, but you must be in almost perfect health. This is not a scenario for novice, slow, inexperienced climbers. You can easily die. This is the most risky of all my options.

Goldilocks Timing

Each year, a few lucky teams go between the early and late teams when it is not too cold and not too hot (as if it ever is on Everest!) and the winds are low. In other words, perfect conditions. Most summits have occurred between 17 and 22 May since 1953. But this doesn’t mean the weather was good. Let me repeat this—just because more people summit on 19 May does not mean the weather is always good that day each year.

As previously discussed, these teams chose to skip the early windows due to the crowds but didn’t want to wait too late and risk missing any windows altogether. So, knowing May 19th has been the sweet spot for decades, many teams arbitrarily target this date.

Everest Summit Days. Data from the Himalayan Database

However, many of these historical patterns are not as predictive as they once were with climate change. Anyway, long-time, very experienced guides will pour over custom weather forecasts and select a window based on their experience, advice from professional meteorologists, and input from long-time Everest Sherpas on mountain conditions. A seasoned team rarely goes for the summit in bad weather, yet it occasionally happens.

Break into Small Sub Teams and Go Fast and Nimble

This is the strategy I like the best, but it is the hardest to achieve. You play your own game. You go when your mind and body are fully prepared, well-rested and acclimatized, your camps are stocked, and the weather looks good.

In 2024, there will be teams with fifty members, plus fifty Sherpas—100 total climbers! Some with even more. These large teams will break up into smaller teams of perhaps twenty to forty climbers, still many people. This is an attempt not to “clog” the route.

But some use a technique where they climb nose to butt. The theory is that they move as a single pod in unison, gathering strength from the group. This technique is fine if they are alone on the mountain, but it is almost always extremely slow and plodding, thus creating the bottlenecks we discussed earlier.

So, the best way to deal with these clogs is to unclip from the fixed rope and pass them. Yes, you will assume the risk of slipping on ice or steep terrain and falling to your death, but you have to use common sense to determine where and in what conditions to make this move.

The key, however, is that you must be flexible enough to break away from your group. You are stuck if your leader insists on you being a cog in the wheel. So, discuss this scenario with your team before you leave base camp.

In 2011, I was with IMG and climbed with Kami Sherpa, who had no Western guide. Even though IMG has huge teams, they break them into sub-teams. In 2011, my team became very small for various reasons; thus, we had great flexibility. I credit the IMG leadership for their flexibility and the IMG Sherpas for their skills and experience.

Kami and I made the “pass the clog” move as we left the South Col on 20 May 2011. That night, forty to sixty people were almost standing in place on the Triangular Face about 27,000 feet, just above the South Col or Camp 4. The weather was perfect, and the terrain was reasonable, not overly steep when we made our move. We passed over fifty people in one push.

That single decision made us the third and fourth person to summit that day from the south side out of 150. We never waited during our entire summit push-up and back.

Choices

While I went through several scenarios, often on Everest, your choices are limited due to your team leadership, mountain conditions, weather or your own skills.

2024 will almost certainly be difficult. It may be the year that finally forces serious changes in the future. In any event, perhaps the only solution to avoid crowds altogether on either of the Everest commercial routes is to limit the number of people through quotas similar to Denali or strict requirements to receive a permit, perhaps by requiring a summit of an 8000-meter mountain, as the Chinese authorities already do for Chinese nationals.

So what are your choices? Actually, there are several if you find all of this untenable.

First, climb in the Autumn when almost no one is there. Yes, it takes stronger, faster, tougher, more experienced climbers, but…

Second: investigate different routes, like the West Ridge. Yes, it is harder and longer, your chances of summiting are less, and it takes more experienced climbers, but…

Third: climb on your own terms to go where and when you like. No rules say you have to use the fixed ropes or ladders put in by the support teams. Yes, it would be more dangerous and require more skills and experience, but …

It is popular to complain about the crowds on Everest, more so by people who are not there, never have been and never will. For those that are there, complaining about the crowds is kind of like saying I don’t want to belong to any club that would have me as a member (thank you, Groucho Marx!).

In the end, we all have choices.

Climb On!
Alan
Memories are Everything

Here’s the video podcast version of this weekend’s update:

Plus, a short narrative on climbing from the Balcony to the South Summit

68 views

You can listen to #everest2024 podcasts on Spotify, Apple Podcast, Breaker, YouTube, Pocket Casts, RadioPublic, Anchor, and more. Just search for “alan arnette” on your favorite podcast platform.

Previous Everest 2024 Season Coverage Posts

Everyday Everest

A 16-part podcast series during the Everest 2024 climbing season.

Based on my Fictional 2020 Virtual Everest series, I posted a twenty-minute updated episode a few times a week throughout this season. Everyday Everest follows a fictional team of nine climbers and their personal Sherpas from leaving home to trekking to base camp, acclimatizing, and finally, on their summit push. The story’s protagonist, Harper, sets the tone for the story when she tells her husband, Marc, “Honey, I’m going to climb Everest.”

You can listen to Everyday Everest on Spotify, Apple Podcast, Breaker, YouTube, Pocket Casts, RadioPublic, Anchor, and more. Just search for “alan arnette” on your favorite podcast platform.

Previous Everyday Everest Episodes

Why this coverage?

I like to use these weekend updates to remind my readers that I’m just one guy who loves climbing. With 38 serious climbing expeditions, including four Everest trips under my belt and a summit in 2011, I use my site to share those experiences, demystify Everest each year and bring awareness to Alzheimer’s Disease. My mom, Ida Arnette, died from this disease in 2009, as have four of my aunts. It was a heartbreaking experience that I hope no other family will go through; thus, I asked for donations to non-profits, which 100% goes to them and nothing ever to me.

Ida Arnette 1926-2009

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7 thoughts on “Everest 2024: Weekend Update May 18: Windy Summits and Death”

Peter Stanley says:

May 27, 2024 at 3:30 pm

Hey Alan! Hope you are well? A big massive shout out to our, now legendary, British Climber Kenton Cool and his 18th summit. I know you have interviewed him before and hope you will again. Can’t believe he is now 50 years of age! What a guy! Climb on!!!
1. Alan Arnette says:
  
  May 27, 2024 at 4:07 pm
  
  You bet. I think he’s going for Kami Rita
Gavin Attwood says:

May 18, 2024 at 4:42 pm

Hey Alan, I have a friend guiding for Furtenbach Adventures on the south side. Any news from that team? Thanks! Gavin
1. Alan Arnette says:
  
  May 18, 2024 at 4:51 pm
  
  Hey Gavin! He has two teams the South, one is at Camp 2 and the other, C3. They should summit Monday or Tuesday morning, Nepal time.
2. Alan Arnette says:
  
  May 20, 2024 at 11:27 am
  
  They are at the SCol as of Monday night
Laurie Normandeau says:

May 18, 2024 at 3:23 pm

Hi Alan! I’m following this year’s Everest and love your posts! I felt I should let you know this section has many typos that make it difficult to understand in case you wanted to edit it? Warmly, Laurie Normandeau

2024 has been mixed. Last weeknd around May 10, 11 and 12 the winds were under the top limit of 30 mph that the nest teams use. About 90 people summited over those days. But then the winds retruned shtting dow the mountian for the ebst teams. However a few made efforts and wer turn back by gusts upwars of 70 mph per one clibmer. Two indpendent cibmers from Mongola pushed their no Os or support positon and died neon the Southeast Ridge between the Balcony and South Summit. Now the forecvast calls for ten days under 30 mph, opeing the upper mountian to everyone. Thye shoud pread out and crowing shoud be minimized, but …
1. Alan Arnette says:
  
  May 18, 2024 at 3:31 pm
  
  Wow, not sure how that slipped by me! Thanks.

Comments are closed.